A new axis is emerging. Russia, China and Iran are uniting in a tyrannical coalition determined to establish a rival world order founded on autocracy and the suppression of rights.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategic maneuvers in the South Caucasus are escalating, where a formidable alliance is emerging to rival Europe’s divided one.
Georgia, under the rule of its pro-Russian billionaire prime minister, has introduced a stringent media law, dubbed the “Russian law,” that effectively criminalizes foreign media.
This comes at a time when neighboring Armenia is pivoting toward the West for economic and security partnerships, spurning its traditional ties with Russia after being abandoned in its conflict with Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Protests against Georgia’s new media law have been met with brutal crackdowns by the pro-Russian regime, whereas in Armenia, protesters against their government’s Western alignment enjoy widespread Russian support.
The strength of Russia’s multi-faceted strategy lies in its flexibility. In Georgia, it’s successfully courting government power, while in Armenia, it’s subverting it.
In response, Europe must be equally flexible. Because if the machinations are left unchecked, the economic implications of these shifts are enormous.
Georgia is poised to become a sanctuary for sanctioned Russian oligarchs thanks to another new law that severely undermines European sanctions. This arrangement could eventually be enhanced and exchanged for the reintegration of Georgia’s Russian-backed breakaway regions.
This reintegration strategy has kept Georgia’s ruling party in power for over a decade, with recent polls within the country indicating it is a more pressing issue than joining the EU.
And this law has a dual purpose too: Georgia has openly positioned any future repeal of this law as a bargaining chip for accession into the European Union.
China is another beneficiary of Georgia’s realignment and Russia’s schemes. Georgia transferred control of a strategic Black Sea port from an American company to Chinese companies, fulfilling China’s vision of dominating vital underwater cables carrying the world’s internet traffic.
This move coincides with China’s ongoing belligerence in the South China Sea, where it openly lays claim to the waters of several states, including traditionally neutral Malaysia and its oil-rich Sabah region.
The wider geopolitical context in Malaysia’s Sabah largely mirrors the tussle for Georgia’s breakaway regions, with China’s own lawyers being deployed to steal Western tech secrets. We will lose these secret wars against the emerging axis of Russia, China and Iran if we continue with complacency, lawfare and lack of a compelling alternative.
The situation in Armenia underscores the stakes for Europe. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, profoundly disillusioned by the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, has turned to Europe for support but has reaped no benefits.
Despite calls from former NATO Secretary-General Rasmussen for Europe to scale up its support for Armenia, Azerbaijan is still freely pursuing claims to sovereign Armenian territory against Pashinyan’s isolated and marooned government. Europe’s reaction has been almost nonexistent. If it remains so, Russia’s grip on the South Caucusus will only tighten.
To reverse this dangerous trend, Europe must install bold, sweeping reforms of its institutions to accelerate the formation of a wider, cohesive democratic union that curbs rising Euro-skepticism instead of inspiring it. Strengthening and expanding sanctions against Russia’s rising class of intermediaries is part of this.
Without assertive action on this front, EU states such as Hungary, Serbia and Slovakia will slide even further into Russia’s orbit.
Secondly, Europe must end its rising energy dependency on Azerbaijan. A simple “not Russia” energy policy is insufficient, especially given Aliyev expanding trade with Putin, and will ultimately contradict Europe’s commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels as agreed at COP28.
In Dubai, COP President Sultan Al-Jaber presided over an almost 200-state consensus to “transition away” from fossil fuels towards green energy. As the largest signatory bloc, Europe should interpret its reliance on regimes like Aliyev’s as a strategic weakness it must end to create a robust security strategy.
To safeguard against these multi-level threats, it’s crucial that European states spend far more than their 2 percent NATO commitment on defense to not only accommodate an increasingly brittle global geopolitical climate but also to demonstrate a capacity to use both soft power and devastating force.
If the South Caucasus is subsumed behind Putin’s curtain, and China’s play succeeds in the South China Sea, the West will face a burgeoning union built on autocracy, force and erosion of rights — not on our doorstep either, but in our very midst.
George Meneshian is a researcher at the Washington Institute for Defense and Security and Head of the Middle East Research Group of the Institute of International Relations in Athens.