5 lessons learned halfway through the global year of elections

As has been widely reported, 2024 is witnessing a large number of elections, with billions of voters eligible to go to the polls. The number of contests is a powerful reminder that elections remain the preferred way societies determine their leaders, with even authoritarian states feeling compelled to hold elections to maintain a patina of legitimacy. 

Now at the midpoint in the year of elections, five global trends have already emerged affecting electoral integrity.  

1. Traditional authoritarian tactics remain the greatest threat. The strategic manipulation of legal frameworks and rules of the game to decrease political competition and close civic space is the dominant threat to democratic elections this year. We’ve seen the abrupt and extralegal postponement of elections in Senegal, arbitrary arrests of opposition candidates, activists and journalists in Tunisia, the disqualification of opposition candidates in Venezuela and, most recently, the election commission’s suppression of transparent, disaggregated results information and the recent passage of a Russian-style “foreign influence” bill in Georgia, designed to limit civic participation severely. These tactics are carbon copies of authoritarian approaches applied over the years to gain an unfair advantage by limiting inclusion, diminishing transparency and undermining accountability in the electoral process.
2. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a problem, but it’s not yet the problem. Much attention has been given to the threat that generative AI poses to elections, particularly, the fear of new and easily accessible AI tools. However, the impact of generative AI on elections has yet to be determined. Generative AI is used in online campaigns in places like Bangladesh, Ghana, India, Mexico and Pakistan, both officially by political campaigns and by less transparent influence operations, where the source is neither clear nor accountable. While it also has the potential to enhance elections, most AI-generated campaign content is designed to discredit contestants or, less often, to improve the images of preferred candidates. While AI content may be harder to detect and debunk, “shallow fakes” and other simpler forms of misinformation continue to be just as damaging. Though the use of generative AI in elections remains a threat, it is currently dwarfed by more overt and traditional forms of manipulation to consolidate power and suppress discourse.
3. Credible institutions matter. Over the last six months, the most resilient elections relied on strong institutions, including competent and trustworthy election management bodies, an independent judiciary, vibrant political parties, pluralist media and active civil society. In Mexico, efforts to undermine the widely respected National Electoral Institute have so far been thwarted. In South Africa, the courts along with the highly regarded Independent Electoral Commission helped keep the guardrails on a contentious contest. Meanwhile in Taiwan’s elections, the collective and often coordinated efforts of civic tech organizations, Taiwanese media and government institutions provided a bulwark against Chinese foreign interference. The strength of democratic institutions to withstand shocks and pressures remains crucial for building accountability, transparency and confidence in the process. 
4. Citizens are the strongest electoral safeguard. The brightest spot this year is the role that citizens themselves continue to play in defending their right to vote. Citizen action in Guatemala last year ensured credible results were not overturned. In Senegal, citizens would not accept an unconstitutional delay in elections. In Georgia, protests continue over the adoption of draconian election-related legislation. Further, citizens around the world have come together in nearly every country to monitor their own elections, known as domestic or citizen observation. However, citizen observers are under threat as never before. Since the beginning of 2024, election observers in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Serbia have become victims of sustained discrediting campaigns, and in some cases intimidation, detention and violence. Such attacks have prompted special recognition from United Nations special rapporteurs and others to protect the role that election observers play as defenders of citizens’ civil and political rights. 
5. Every year is a year of elections. While democracy is about more than elections, elections continue to provide unexpected outcomes, avenues to hold representatives accountable, and regular opportunities for democratic renewal. While quantifying the number of global elections can help draw attention, it does not provide an accurate view of the globe’s electoral landscape. Some are elections in name only, such as in Belarus, Iran or Russia. Others will not actually be held as scheduled due to ongoing conflict (Ukraine), or are otherwise highly uncertain (South Sudan). Unplanned snap elections and reruns are not uncommon. Meanwhile, hundreds of local elections — which can profoundly impact people’s lives — are often uncounted. The electoral calendar is complex and uncertain, and the fundamental rights of citizens will not suddenly lose importance, nor will electoral challenges suddenly dissipate in January 2025. 

While we will continue to follow the myriad of elections in 2024, if this year teaches us anything, it’s that all elections matter, everywhere, at any time. We call on the international community, governments, civic organizations and the media to take similar care and attention to elections in 2025 and beyond. 

Julia Brothers is deputy director, Richard L. Klein is director and Mario Mitre is senior advisor for elections and political processes at the National Democratic Institute.