The struggle in the Middle East is not between barbarians and freedom seekers, nor between those who sanctify life and those who sanctify death, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted in his recent address to Congress.
Rather, it could be better characterized as a struggle between radical messianic groups that are fighting in the name of God, and the majority who aspire to a secure life of personal and national freedom.
The suffering and hatred produced by the Gaza war has blinded eyes on both sides. That’s why this is the time for visionary statesmanship, not for hollow speeches and political games.
Over the last 20 years, the Iranian nuclear threat has been the main driver of Israel’s policy in the region, and of Netanyahu’s attempts to influence American administrations. While hoping that the limited preemptive strike Israel’s air force launched on Hezbollah targets early Sunday morning doesn’t trigger a regional war, the Biden administration must not allow Netanyahu to sway U.S. foreign policy decisions that relate to Iran. Doing so carries the risk of American entanglement in a conflict with unpredictable consequences — even to the point of dragging the U.S. into a destabilizing regional war that could become a ruinous global conflict.
Netanyahu has been hawkish toward Iran for many years. He heads the most extreme right-wing Israeli government ever, supported by religious-messianic groups that are subject to international sanctions. This government has led the country to its worst crises: the threat to Israel’s democratic nature through the “judicial reform” it launched early last year, and the severe security threat exposed by the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre and the ensuing wars on multiple fronts.
Netanyahu’s opposition to the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration resonated with certain factions in Washington. That opposition led to the abandonment of the deal by the Trump administration and a policy shift toward increased pressure upon and isolation of Iran. This in turn gave Tehran an open path towards becoming a nuclear threshold state.
And now, for all intents and purposes, Netanyahu objects to President Biden’s “Day After” outline for the war in Gaza, which combines a hostage release deal, cessation of the Gaza war and a normalized Middle East with the Saudis as its center. Even worse, Netanyahu is “once again sabotaging the talks” for the release of the hostages, according to a source involved in the negotiations quoted in Haaretz, reaffirming what many Israelis have suspected for a long time.
The only path that could lead to more stability in the region is a regional agreement comprising a security-based coalition of all moderate regional actors, most importantly Saudi Arabia. Yet Netanyahu rejects such a path, because it requires Israel to embark on a process that will eventually lead to a Palestinian state. With his current extremist coalition, Netanyahu cannot agree to such a course of action and still remain in power.
Netanyahu’s reckless policy, which aims to please his extreme right-wing coalition partners rather than pursue a regional security coalition, not only runs contrary to the policy and interests of the U.S., it also flies in the face of the strong and unanimous recommendation of the Israeli security and defense establishment. Netanyahu is acting as an autocratic ruler, ignoring that establishment and jeopardizing Israel’s liberal and democratic foundations.
It should be obvious that Netanyahu’s political and personal interests should not supersede those of the U.S. in shaping American foreign policy priorities. And it should be just as obvious that Israel has no stronger or more important ally than America.
For the second time in five months, the Biden administration is organizing military and diplomatic coalitions to counter the threat of an Iranian attack on Israel. It has announced that it is committed to Israel’s defense, and is dispatching aircraft carriers, submarines and fighter jets to the region.
The Biden administration also coordinated the joint statement from leaders of the U.S., the UK, France, Germany and Italy that called on Iran “to stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack against Israel and discussed the serious consequences for regional security should such an attack take place.”
Now Biden is getting on the phone with Netanyahu to try to get a Gaza cease-fire and hostage release deal, while also trying to deter Iran and Hezbollah from conducting an attack on Israel.
Netanyahu must not be allowed to undermine these efforts. He also should not be allowed to prevent a robust though nuanced approach towards Iran that has the potential to de-escalate tensions with Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
The true interest of the moderate forces lies in forming a regional coalition prior to any escalation with Iran. That by itself is a delicate move, as the people in Arab Muslim countries, even in Sunni states, have a positive view of Iranian support for the Palestinians. A security-political alliance of the moderate Arab states, with the implicit support of Israel, would produce additional positive outcomes, including a cease-fire in Gaza, release of the Israeli hostages and the initiation of a gradual political process between Israel and the Palestinians.
Conversely, military escalation with Iran, in which the U.S. and Europe are entangled without a stable regional coalition, will be perceived in the Arab sphere as a crusade to save Israel, putting American regional interests at risk.
Events in the Middle East, Israel-U.S. relations and Netanyahu’s involvement in American politics should be viewed through the lens of the Iranian nuclear issue and terrorism. Dealing with the hostages and ending the war in Gaza without shaping an arrangement comprising a moderate Sunni-Western alliance that includes Israel would result in a victory for Hamas and the strengthening of the radical axis led by Iran.
After Oct. 7, the Biden administration also realized that a process leading to a political settlement with the Palestinians had become a necessary condition for creating such an alliance — and, with it, a new Middle East.
At the same time, Israel is right to fear Iranian aggression through the military attacks of its proxies, coupled with Tehran’s drive to achieve military nuclear capabilities, while it strengthens its control from Yemen to Lebanon. The U.S. should assist Israel in its quest to thwart Iran’s hegemonic, anti-Israel ambitions, but it should do so in a way that enhances regional stability.
The U.S. must not succumb to Netanyahu’s pressure seeking to sabotage movement toward a sounder and stronger Middle East, motivated by his personal interests and those of his right-wing coalition partners. That is the opposite of the visionary statesmanship needed now.
Adm. (Ret.) Ami Ayalon is a former director of the Israeli security agency Shin Bet and commander of the Navy. Gilead Sher, a fellow at the Baker Institute, chairs Sapir Academic College adjacent to the Gaza border. He is a former senior peace negotiator and chief of staff to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. Orni Petruschka, a social activist and philanthropist, is a former tech entrepreneur.