On his way out, AMLO is taking a wrecking-ball to Mexico’s institutions

The future of democracy and the investment climate in Mexico are in peril at this moment. Lame-duck President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known universally as AMLO) has a very clear roadmap to finish his tenure in the National Palace. He wants to consolidate his party’s parliamentary supermajority, reform the judiciary and eliminate all the checks and balances.

Long story short, he wants to exterminate democracy in Mexico by installing a totalitarian regime in the style of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.

First, by creating new artificial seats in the legislative branch, AMLO has managed to ensure, through pressure and persuasion, more than 73 percent of seats in the Lower House. He is also attempting to undermine judicial independence by establishing the election of all judges by popular vote.

The Mexican government has claimed that these reforms would establish a judiciary with true independence and strengthen democracy. In practice, they would accomplish the opposite, while also lowering professional standards and creating vulnerabilities to political, economic and criminal organizations in a nation where drug cartels are still shockingly powerful.

Bank of America believes that the next 90 days, before AMLO leaves office and is replaced by his elected successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, will set the tone for Mexico’s next 10 years. The report noted that AMLO’s reforms are high-risk, affect the character of Mexico’s democracy and will cause greater volatility in the markets.

Morgan Stanley also issued an underweight warning in Mexican shares due to concerns about the judicial reforms in particular. These changes may also increase uncertainty about the capital expenditure outlook amid bottlenecks in nearshoring capacity.

In short, the Cuban model is advancing in Mexico, under which a one-party state is everything and no constitutional guarantee is worth anything. According to article 94 of the Cuban Constitution, “Every person, as a guarantee of their legal security, enjoys due process in both the judicial and administrative spheres.” In practice, the supreme interest of the revolution tramples on all human rights.

In Venezuela, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice acts as a branch of the Bolivarian regime. This is the court that has validated the electoral fraud of Nicolás Maduro, calling his self-proclamation of victory unobjectionable and unappealable. The United Nations has made it clear that the rulings of this institution are not impartial nor credible.

In Nicaragua, the Supreme Court of Justice has been reduced to a dependency of the party and the family of dictator Daniel Ortega. Legal security vanished a long time ago. Confiscation of private property is the order of the day, despite being prohibited by Nicaragua’s constitution.

AMLO’S plan seemed to be going full steam ahead, but a few days ago the Biden administration broke its long silence and warned of the great risks represented by these changes in the judiciary.

The U.S. ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, said that popular direct elections of judges is a major risk to the functioning of Mexico’s democracy. “Any judicial reform should have the right kinds of safeguards that will ensure the judicial branch will be strengthened and not subject to the corruption of politics.” He also noted that the reform will threaten the historic trade relationship between Mexico and the U.S.

Democrats and Republicans in the Senate issued a joint statement. Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and Ranking Member Jim Risch (R-Idaho), along with Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), issued a statement expressing deep concern about proposed constitutional reforms in Mexico that would undermine judicial independence and risk violating the terms of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement.

“We strongly urge the Lopez Obrador Administration, as well the incoming Sheinbaum Administration, to pursue only those reforms that enhance professional qualifications, combat corruption, protect judicial autonomy, and strengthen investors’ confidence.”

Mexico is on the wrong path. In regimes based on absolute power, legal certainty is the first victim of judicial reforms; the second is foreign investment; the third is the sacred right to private property.

In this model, it doesn’t matter how much you know about the law, but who you know. In this scheme, everything would be resolved as it is in banana dictatorships.

Mexico, the top U.S. trade partner and one of the 12 largest economies in the world, deserves better — strong, robust and reliable institutions that confer legal certainty and economic predictability. Businesses need this, and democracy needs it even more.

Arturo McFields is an exiled journalist, former Nicaraguan ambassador to the OAS and former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps.