NATO: Call Russia’s bluff and let Ukraine strike back

Last week, Russia launched one of its deadliest attacks on Ukraine yet, firing missiles on non-military areas across Ukraine. Dozens were killed as Russia launched its bombardments on Ukrainian civilians in Poltava and Lviv. 

The events sparked a renewed push by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government to allow for the lifting of restrictions on Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. The Ukrainian president and his officials called on Western officials to “allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia.”

Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Ukrainians have been forced into a series of self-imposed restrictions as a condition of Western aid. Initially, Western officials were reluctant to provide the Ukrainians with defense capabilities that would allow them to fight against the Russian incursion. Many believed that supplying Ukraine with advanced weaponry would escalate Russia’s war and cause further devastation.

But as the last two and a half years have shown, the Russian Federation has been constantly and successfully called on its bluff. 

When the full-scale invasion began, Russia warned that there would be severe consequences if Ukraine resisted. Despite this threat, the Ukrainians gathered their forces and repelled the Russian attack. 

In 2022, the Ukrainians successfully defended their capital and pushed Russian forces entirely out of northern and central Ukraine. These successes suggested Ukraine would have a chance in the war against Russia. 

After these events, the Ukrainians began to receive American High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and Army Tactical Missile Systems. When this defense equipment arrived in Ukraine, nothing came from these Russian threats. Similarly, when the Ukrainians received long-range missiles, the Russians did not escalate.

Following these events, Ukraine continued to take the fight to Russia. In 2023, the Ukrainians reclaimed more than half of the Russian-occupied territories. The Ukrainians also destroyed one-third of Russia’s naval fleet on the Black Sea, and two-thirds of Russia’s pre-invasion tank force was destroyed. 

As the war unfolded, the Russian Federation warned that it would launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine if these advanced weapons were given to the Ukrainians. The Russians also stated that NATO would be forced to pay for its actions. But Russia’s bluffs were called, and nothing came. 

Most recently, the much-awaited F-16 fighter jets arrived in Ukraine. The Ukrainians also launched an incursion into the Russian province of Kursk. Over the past several weeks, the Ukrainians have taken hundreds of square kilometers of Russian territory. Even these two events did not result in a nuclear war. 

These developments have prompted many Western leaders to change their stance on Ukraine’s defense restrictions. For example, Polish officials have argued that Ukraine has a right to strike military targets within Russia. Similarly, the Baltic states, the Nordic states, Canada and several NATO members in Central Europe have called for “Ukraine’s right to strike targets inside Russia.” 

Even Josep Borrell, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, and Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general, called for lifting defense restrictions. 

According to those in favor of easing the restrictions, Ukraine must be allowed to defend itself from Russia’s unprovoked attacks. However, Ukraine is seeking to protect itself from an aggressor state.

If Ukraine is unable to attack Russian military installations, then this will allow the Russians to continue building weapons for their war. The Russians would then use these weapons to supply their forces in southern and eastern Ukraine. This equipment would also be used to orchestrate future bombardments on Ukraine. 

Lifting restrictions on Ukraine, however, would allow it to strike areas that are allowing Russia to prolong the war. For example, there are numerous military installations, weapons factories and ammunition deposits within Russian territory that enable the Russians to orchestrate their attacks on Ukraine. 

According to the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats project, there are at least 245 military and paramilitary areas within Ukraine’s striking distance. If Ukraine could target and destroy these areas, it would limit Russia’s ability to continue its invasion and bombardments. 

Ukraine is a country at war. Ukrainian authorities cannot adequately protect their compatriots if they are unable to strike against Russian projectiles fired on civilians. Lifting defense restrictions will allow Ukrainian authorities to take proper courses of action to protect their citizens, and limit Russia’s ability to orchestrate future attacks on Ukraine. 

Otherwise, if these restrictions remain in place, then the events that took place in Poltava in Lviv will foreshadow additional Russian strikes that will come. 

Ukraine should be allowed to do everything possible that would limit the loss of Ukrainian lives. Allowing Ukraine to strike Russian military targets will save countless Ukrainian lives and help bring a swifter end to the war. 

It is time for all NATO members to lift the restrictions and let Ukraine strike back. 

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.