Hezbollah’s collapse heralds the end of an era of fear in Lebanon

The myth of Hezbollah has been shattered in Lebanon. The militant group’s facade of strength has been fractured by multiple cracks.

The Israeli assassination on Friday of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike has plunged the group into unprecedented chaos.

This moment marks not only the physical demise of Nasrallah but the symbolic end of Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon, leaving the country — and the region — at a pivotal crossroads.

In the aftermath of Nasrallah’s death, Hezbollah has failed to adhere to one of the most basic Islamic traditions: burying the deceased within 24 hours. This is not merely a religious lapse but a public indicator of the group’s internal disarray. Hezbollah, once a well-oiled machine of propaganda and militaristic action, cannot even orchestrate a burial ceremony for its most iconic leader. Worse still, the group has failed to elect a successor to Nasrallah, reflecting a dismantled operational structure and a profound organizational vacuum. 

Hezbollah’s paralysis extends beyond its political operations. Israel, seizing the moment, has launched limited ground operations in Lebanon — a move that would have once provoked a fierce and immediate response from the group. Nasrallah himself frequently boasted that his forces would wreak havoc on any Israeli incursion, a claim made with particular pride following the 2006 conflict.

Yet now, as Israeli troops encounter little or no resistance on Lebanese soil, Hezbollah’s impotence has been laid bare. Remarkably, Hezbollah’s media initially went as far as to deny the incursion took place, signaling not just tactical failure but ignorance of events on the ground. Hezbollah’s field commanders finally engaged the Israelis and inflicted casualties, but not to a level to stop the incursion.

In a desperate bid to show strength, Hezbollah’s Iranian patrons responded with the launch of 181 missiles into Israel, claiming retaliation for Nasrallah’s death and that of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July. But this attack was a failure, causing minimal damage and reinforcing Iran’s growing miscalculations in the region.

Tehran seems to have underestimated the gravity of the moment. With Hezbollah shattered and its leader gone, Israel is no longer facing a credible deterrent. Unlike when Iran launched a similar missile barrage in April, Israel will likely retaliate forcefully this time, knowing that the supposed threat of Hezbollah no longer looms large.

Iran’s decision to escalate in such a fragile moment reveals its strategic miscalculations. Nasrallah’s death was not merely the loss of a figurehead; it was the final blow to the myth that Hezbollah could challenge Israel’s existence. With Hezbollah no longer capable of mounting a serious defense or even maintaining essential organizational functions, Iran’s influence in Lebanon and its ability to project power in the region are significantly diminished. Israel, recognizing this weakness, is likely to respond with the full force that it once held back now that its most persistent regional threat has been neutralized.

The people of Lebanon must now face a stark reality: Hezbollah’s myth of invincibility has been permanently shattered. The group that once held the nation in its grip — militarily and politically — is a shadow of its former self.

Hezbollah justified its dominance for decades by claiming it was Lebanon’s protector. But its failure to even protect itself from Israeli incursions and its inability to manage internal leadership transitions reveal a truth that many have long suspected: Hezbollah’s reign was always built on a foundation of false morality and inflated bravado.

As Lebanon stands at this critical juncture, the question for the Lebanese people — and particularly for the Shiite community — is whether they will continue to support a group that has led them into endless conflict and suffering, or whether they will choose a new path forward. With Hezbollah’s leadership in disarray, its forces in retreat, its politicians in hiding and its regional backers increasingly out of touch with realities on the ground, there is an opportunity to reclaim Lebanese sovereignty and build a future based on peace, not perpetual war.

The time for change is now. Iran’s miscalculation and Hezbollah’s collapse provide Lebanon with a rare opportunity to break free from the stranglehold of a militia that has brought only destruction. The path ahead will not be easy, but it is clear that the old narratives are dead. A new chapter must be written — one that prioritizes Lebanon’s stability, sovereignty and the well-being of its people above all else.

The end of the era of Hezbollah dominance is here. What comes next is up to the people of Lebanon. The Arab world and the West can help only after the Lebanese help themselves.

David Ramadan, Ed.D. is a Lebanese-American who was elected and served in the Virginia House of Delegates. He is a professor of practice at the Schar School at George Mason University and a scholar at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.