Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant postponed his trip to Washington this week, where he was to meet his counterpart, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. The Israeli Ministry of Defense explained that Gallant is consumed by plans for Israeli retaliation for Iran’s firing nearly 200 ballistic missiles at the Jewish State.
Unofficially, it was reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was preventing Gallant’s visit until he received a call from President Biden. The root cause for Netanyahu’s demand may have been Biden’s series of profanity-laced quotes about the prime minister that appear in Bob Woodward’s new book, “War.” Biden finally spoke to Netanyahu on Wednesday, though there are as yet no reports that Woodward’s book was discussed.
Whatever the reason for Gallant postponing his trip, Israel will not drop its plans for retaliation against Tehran. It simply cannot do so. Ever since the 1979 Iranian revolution, the ayatollahs have been unequivocal about their determination to extinguish the Jewish State. Iran is a true existential threat for Israel.
How Israel might retaliate has been a matter of intense speculation ever since Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack on Israeli military and civilian targets. In contrast to Jerusalem’s relatively moderate response to Iran’s April 13 missile and drone attack, which involved Israeli air strikes against a limited number of military targets, Jerusalem is expected to launch a major operation that could seriously damage Iran’s nuclear facilities, its economy or both.
Nevertheless, unless Israel can obtain American support for a strike on the Iranian nuclear complex, it is unlikely to attempt one. It cannot easily destroy Iran’s sprawling nuclear complex, which is widely dispersed throughout a country the size of Texas.
Israel is far more likely to attack Iran’s major oil terminal on Kharg Island, or some of its refineries, such as those in Hormozgan province. An attack on the oil terminal would throttle Tehran’s ability to export petroleum, thereby disrupting Iran’s already teetering economy.
The Biden administration fears that such an attack could cause oil prices to spike, with some analysts predicting a rise to at least $100 per barrel. But maybe not.
Iran’s crude oil production has declined markedly from nearly 4 million barrels per day as recently as May to currently under 300,000 barrels per day, due to its fears of an impending Israeli attack. Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could easily make up for that amount, thereby stabilizing world oil process.
It is noteworthy that both states have recently been cutting back on their oil production at a combined level greater than Iran’s previous rate of production. Saudi Arabia has reduced its output by 3 million barrels per day, the Emirates by 1.4 million. Together they could more than offset a complete halt to Iranian oil exports.
Many analysts fear that should Israel attack the Kharg terminal, Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz, the passage that leads from the Persian Gulf to the open sea. Doing so, however, would not only constrain all Iranian exports — thus further throttling Tehran’s already weak economy — but would certainly spur American, allied and even Arab military efforts to prevent such a closure in the first place.
Those efforts would likely succeed in the face of what is still a relatively weak Iranian military. Indeed, both the regular military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may find themselves called upon to confront and control a major new wave of internal unrest sparked by the domestic economic impact of the drop in oil and other exports.
The Biden administration appears to be wringing its hands over the potential for oil price increases, which it fears could affect the outcome of the presidential election. If it worries that the Gulf Arabs will not make up any Iranian shortfall quickly enough, it could release some of the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve, which continues to grow and stands at 382.55 million barrels, up from a current level of 361.89 million last week and from 350.98 million one year ago. The reserve could cover any oil shortfall until the Gulf Arabs ramp up their own production rates.
Israel may or may not retaliate by attacking Kharg Island, or for that matter any of the Iranian refineries or Tehran’s nuclear complex. As it demonstrated in response to the April 13 attacks, it still has other options available. But even were Israel to attack the terminal, Washington could coordinate with both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to stabilize oil prices and thereby ensure than an economic crisis does not materialize.
Such an initiative lies squarely in the hand of the White House, if it is only willing to seize it.
Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.