North Korean troops in Ukraine show the war’s global stakes

It is now clear that at least some number of North Korean troops are fighting for Russia in its war against Ukraine. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service has asserted that approximately 1,500 North Korean troops — reportedly special forces — began to deploy to Russia on Oct. 8. It added in its public release that Russian ships transported the North Koreans, who were issued Russian uniforms, weapons and fake identity cards. The U.S. now says the number of troops is at least 3,000.

Both South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence agencies also claim that North Korea plans to send between 11,000 and 12,000 additional troops to Russia to support its invasion. Various video and eyewitness reports confirm the presence of North Korean troops at the battle front, while the Kiev Post reported that six North Koreans were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk. Britain’s ambassador to the U.N. has effectively supported the two intelligence service assertions, stating that “it is highly likely North Korea has agreed to send troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine.”

Not surprisingly, North Korea denies that it has sent any troops to Russia. Similarly, the Russian news agency quoted Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s press secretary, who issued what amounted to a non-denial denial, saying that while Russia certainly cooperates with North Korea, “this cooperation is not directed against third countries.”

But of course, Putin has publicly asserted that Ukraine is not a real state and therefore, not a “third country.” As he put it in a speech three days before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, “Ukraine actually never had stable traditions of real statehood.” He has reiterated his claim several times since. Seen in this light, Peskov’s additional statement that “we will develop this cooperation further” is an ominous indication that Moscow sees no reason to prevent North Koreans from joining its invading forces.

North Korea’s decision to supply Russia with troops represents a quantum step above its previous support for Moscow’s invasion. Over the course of the past year, Pyongyang has shipped nearly 17,000 containers of munitions, reportedly including anti-tank missiles and portable surface-to-air missiles, to Russia. At the same time, Seoul has not provided any armaments to Ukraine, at least not directly. South Korea reportedly has shipped several hundred-thousand 155 mm artillery shells to the U.S. to replenish its dwindling stocks and allow Washington to ship more shells to Ukraine. Officially, however, Seoul has until now provided Kiev primarily with humanitarian support. This is likely to change, as well it should.

A “senior official” in the South Korean president’s office indicated that Seoul is considering sending defense and lethal weapons to Ukraine in response to the North Korean troop transfers. Moreover, this official added, “if it seems they are going too far, we might also consider offensive use.” While the official declined to define “too far,” it is arguable that if North Korea adds to the troops that Seoul says have already begun to deploy to Russia, that would trigger a step up in South Korean military aid to Kyiv.

Initially the U.S. did not officially confirm that North Korea was transferring troops to Russia. Peskov made much of that fact, stating that “we are seeing a lot of contradictory information: the South Koreans say one thing, then the Pentagon says that they have no confirmation of such a statement.”

Yet Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin did subsequently acknowledge what South Korea, Ukraine and Britain all had already asserted.

Despite Russia and North Korea’s denials, it is imperative that Washington and London encourage South Korea to ship arms to Ukraine as soon as possible.

Ukraine continues to suffer from a shortfall in ammunition and weaponry. To that end, this week the Biden administration announced the release of an additional $400 million worth of ammunition for various artillery and missile systems. Yet these shipments, important as they might be, are insufficient to meet Ukraine’s needs. European military assistance, which also continues apace, likewise falls short of Kyiv’s ongoing demands for equipment and munitions.

South Korean materiel, sent directly and not via time-delayed shipments through third countries, is therefore vital to Ukraine’s successful defense against the ongoing Russian onslaught. It is true that, given North Korea’s troop transfers to Russia, direct South Korean support for Kyiv effectively renders the Russo-Ukrainian war a proxy conflict between the two Koreas. Yet viewing matters in those terms overlooks the reality that it is futile to try to isolate security concerns in Europe from those in Asia and vice-versa.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has stated that “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the reckless military alignment between Russia and North Korea once again confirm that the security of the Indo-Pacific region and the Atlantic region are inextricably linked.” He is absolutely correct.

Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.