What to expect from Japan’s new prime minister

Today, Japan’s parliament will vote to confirm its next prime minister, just a few days after Fumio Kishida was elected the new president of Japan’s largest political party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), effectively securing the PM position.  

Kishida, who was Japan’s foreign minister when President Biden was vice president, is expected to be warmly welcomed in Washington. Many of his policies will be similar to his predecessors who have invested significantly in building a stronger U.S.-Japan alliance. The relationship between Washington and Tokyo is becoming ever more important to meet today’s challenges. 

Unlike his predecessor, Yoshihide Suga, who was in office only for about a year, Kishida could shepherd Japan’s domestic and foreign policies for the next several years. As more of Japan’s population becomes fully vaccinated — now with a higher rate than the U.S., at 59 percent — COVID-19 is unlikely to weigh on his administration as much as it did Suga’s. 

Kishida’s first test as the new LDP president will come in the general election in November.   

As Japan continues to struggle with the coronavirus, its economic consequences, and the increasing presence of China’s military, the country needs decisive leadership. Recovering from the pandemic should be one of Kishida’s top priorities, but the Japanese public is also interested in addressing long-term issues tied to Japan’s aging population and low birth rate, such as reforming Japan’s pension and health care systems. 

Kishida has his own vision for Japan’s economic future, which he has called a new kind of “Japanese capitalism.” Like former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” economic strategy — which aimed to create a “virtuous cycle” of more demand, production, income and consumption — Kishida has his own “cycle” in mind composed of increasing income and wealth distribution. Much of this is focused on growing Japan’s middle class, but instead of reform Kishida likely will rely more on the power of the purse to reduce housing and education costs. 

With more and more military activity by China and North Korea, foreign policy also will top the new prime minister’s agenda. Less than two weeks ago, outgoing PM Suga traveled to Washington for the first in-person meeting of leaders from the U.S., Japan, Australia and India, known as the Quad. Kishida will inherit this crucial partnership, which arguably has grown more important given the mutually shared challenges of each member posed by the pandemic, supply chain delays, climate change and the China challenge. 

While the Quad is important to Japan, the bilateral relationship with the U.S. remains paramount. Kishida already has stressed the priority he will place on the U.S.-Japan alliance, including by promoting the Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision outlined during the Trump and Abe administrations. 

Kishida will inherit some challenges within the relationship, including the constant thorn that is Japan’s limited defense spending. Really, this criticism cuts both ways; both the U.S. and Japan need to invest more in their defense capabilities. Yet there will be more opportunities for cooperation than disagreement in the alliance, including finding areas of collaboration for U.S.-Japan research and development and investing in new and emerging technologies. 

Overall, there’s every reason for cautious optimism about the direction of the country with the new prime minister at the helm. 

Riley Walters is deputy director of the Japan Chair at Hudson Institute.