“Time is running short,” the Biden administration clearly warned Iran, declaring that the window for nuclear diplomacy will “not remain open forever.”
These would indeed be strong words if they hadn’t been uttered four months ago. Similarly, the White House’s admonition that a deal must be reached “within weeks,” would have more bite if it hadn’t first been made more than eight weeks ago.
For more than half a year, American diplomats have formulaically repeated these empty threats of ticking clocks and diminishing patience. In the meantime, Tehran actually has moved further away from returning to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, taking a hardline negotiating stance and expanding its nuclear program to the brink of weapons capability.
Now it seems the administration is admitting, at least on background, that nuclear talks with Iran stop serving any useful purpose at the end of this month. American officials are claiming the “decisive moment” and “very final stretch” for diplomacy are here.
If it continues negotiations after so many dire warnings, the administration would be letting Iran call its bluff. This would be the death knell of American credibility and, with it, the White House’s lingering hopes to rejoin the original nuclear deal — let alone the “longer, stronger” follow-on agreement Biden promised but no longer mentions.
The United States would then be left with only dire choices. Watch Iran gain a de facto nuclear umbrella, further destabilizing the Middle East. Or make a dangerously lopsided “more for less” deal that leaves Tehran closer to a bomb, and gives it a greater sanctions relief windfall, than even the JCPOA did. Either outcome would directly undermine the president’s goals of putting Iran’s nuclear program “in a box,” mitigating regional conflict and refocusing America’s attention elsewhere. Meanwhile, Putin, Xi and other U.S. adversaries would view the administration’s empty warnings on Iran as green lights for their own aggression.
Instead, President Biden and his national security team must make explicit and public what they keep telling journalists anonymously: Tehran has until the end of February to rejoin the JCPOA, full stop. This entails pledging, unequivocally, that if Iran balks, the United States walks — and turns up the pressure. Based on recent statements, European partners in the talks very likely would have America’s back.
Upholding its existing deadline is the only viable option left. Yet, whether there’s a mutual JCPOA return or talks fall apart, the United States urgently must also ensure it has viable non-diplomatic options — both to prevent Iran from reaching the nuclear threshold and to deter or deny its regional aggression.
If the ultimatum works and the JCPOA is revived, Tehran still will receive an influx of cash and credit. As in the wake of the 2015 deal, this almost certainly will be used to threaten U.S. forces and allies — especially as Iran’s regional military footprint, and its missile and drones, have advanced appreciably since the JCPOA first went into effect. At this point, rejoining the agreement also gives Tehran a shorter breakout time than in the initial deal, and a shorter wait — only six to eight years — until the JCPOA grants it a legitimized nuclear program with zero breakout time.
And though a collapse of talks wouldn’t reverse Iran’s nuclear advances, importantly it would end the dangerous pretense, after more than 10 months of desultory negotiations and ample demonstrations of U.S. goodwill, that Tehran is a responsible actor actually willing to constrain its nuclear ambitions — even under a framework as favorable as the JCPOA. It also would upset Iran’s longstanding, and frankly understandable, discounting of the seriousness of U.S. intentions.
Either way, the United States must now make up for lost time and bolster pressure. Right away, this will improve the prospects for diplomacy by reinforcing that the Biden team stands by its deadline. If there is no deal come March 1, these measures will be inherently more compelling in Tehran’s eyes as American diplomats carry out their promises to depart Vienna for good.
This starts with strengthening sanctions on China-Iran energy ties, which have been a lifeline for Tehran and which the administration under-enforced in a counterproductive conciliatory gesture. It also entails heightening military readiness by both the United States and Israel, which historically has been the most reliable way to coerce Iran’s regime. The administration should expedite the transfer of key U.S. capabilities already purchased by Israel, including aerial refueling tankers and combat aircraft, and restock precision-guided munitions in the U.S. arms depot in Israel, for use by either country.
It is well past time for President Biden to live up to his statements and call time out on the Iran nuclear talks.
Blaise Misztal and Jonathan Ruhe are the vice president for Policy and director of Foreign Policy, respectively, at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA).