How Jack Smith’s prudence aids Donald Trump’s polls

Much has been written about the correlation between former President Donald Trump’s popularity and his criminal cases, and how his poll numbers have spiked upwards each time he has been indicted. This seems counterintuitive, but there may be good reasons for this curious phenomenon.

Special Prosecutor Jack Smith is, of course, working under the auspices of the United States Department of Justice. Notably, the justice manual that the department has promulgated, and to which Smith must adhere, severely constrains what federal prosecutors can say about pending cases. 

The manual directs prosecutors to refrain from commenting on an accused’s character, his or her public statements and the probability that the accused is guilty of the charged crime. In essence, prosecutors must largely stand mute and let their cases speak for themselves.

Regardless of the justice manual’s dictates, Jack Smith is a career prosecutor who is the very model of rectitude. This mirrors the demeanor of Attorney General Merrick Garland, a former federal judge who has been criticized for his deliberate and highly ethical demeanor. 

Neither of these individuals tends to paint outside the lines. In their world, indictments speak for themselves. Fair play and adherence to the rules are mandatory and not optional concepts.

In contrast, Trump, while somewhat constrained by gag orders issued by presiding judges, has an almost unfettered ability to say practically anything about the merits of the cases against him. Accordingly, he has created out of whole cloth the narrative that he is being politically persecuted. 

Because Smith cannot (and will not) try his cases in public, and moreover since most voters will never take the time to read the indictments against Trump that contain enormously consequential allegations and criminal charges, it is Trump’s narrative that carries the day for many of his supporters.

The false narrative has a great deal of power. Psychology calls it the “illusory truth effect.” When a lie is repeated over and over, the information feels familiar and that makes it easier for people to rely on it.  Suffice it to say that Trump is a master of implementing this tool.

Nothing about this should surprise us. In the recent Iowa caucuses, exit polls indicated a majority of Republican voters there believe Trump won the 2020 election. There is absolutely no empirical data to support this, but once again, it is a product of a false narrative that has been repeated time and again by Trump and his supporters. If you keep saying it, it must be true.

Unfortunately, unless and until Smith and his team can present their evidence fully in a court of law, and Trump suffers a conviction on any of the significant counts he’s facing, this bizarre and unprecedented situation will persist. Give Trump his due — he has astonishingly turned multiple federal criminal prosecutions into positive poll numbers.

In the end, Smith’s only recourse is to get one of these cases to trial, which will be a daunting task as he is running out of time. Until then, Trump has the floor, and the illusory truth effect will continue to favor him in his quest to return to the presidency.

John E. Jones III is the president of Dickinson College in Carlisle, Pa. He previously served as the chief judge of the U.S. Middle District Court of Pennsylvania, where he was appointed to the bench by President George W. Bush in 2002.