Mark Mellman: Clinton’s primary advantage

Political contests can be illuminated in a variety of ways. We can analyze them through the prism of candidate images, issue dynamics or voters’ values, among many others.

Perhaps the most important way to understand the current Democratic presidential primary contest is the simplest: through demographics.

Who’s “feelin’ the Bern?” 

Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) support consistently falls into relatively discreet buckets. They are younger, white, college-educated, men. Hillary Clinton dominates elsewhere.

Check the data.

{mosads}Public Policy Polling’s recent New Hampshire primary robo-poll finds Sanders leading Clinton by 8 points among those age 45 and under, but Clinton is ahead by 11 points among those 46-65 and by a commanding 26-point margin with voters over 65.

A YouGov/The New York Times online survey of the Granite State gives Sanders 79 percent of those 18-28 and 62 percent of those 30-34, while Clinton leads 51 percent to 43 percent among those over 45.

Iowa provides a flavor of the impact of education as well. Quinnipiac’s survey earlier this week found Clinton ahead by 7 points among those with a college degree but by twice as much (14 points) among those who don’t have a college diploma. In a Des Moines Register poll, those with no college degree preferred Clinton by an even larger 49 percent to 31 percent.

Age differences in support are profound in Iowa as well. Sanders leads by a massive 44 points with those under 35, while Clinton holds a vast 53-point edge with those 65 and older. 

In the Des Moines Register poll, the former secretary of State’s biggest lead is with seniors. She gets 55 percent from those 65 and older, with Sanders claiming just 18 percent. By contrast, those younger than 45 prefer Sanders by 2-to-1.

Gender also plays a key role. In Iowa, Sanders is ahead by 12 with men, while Clinton leads by 26 among women.

In South Carolina, the limits of Sanders’s appeal become more evident. 

He leads by 8 points among those under 30, while Clinton enjoys the advantage with every other age group, including a yawning 62-point gulf among those 65 and older.

Sanders leads whites by 7 points, but Clinton posts a vast 79-point margin with African-Americans.

Overall, Sanders’s support is highly concentrated among those who are younger, white, college-educated, male. And that’s his problem — those segments do not comprise particularly large proportions of the Democratic primary electorate.

In Iowa and New Hampshire, some 57 percent of Democratic voters in 2008 were female; in South Carolina it was 61 percent.

Twenty-three percent of those who attended the Iowa caucuses in 2008 were under 30, compared to 31 percent who were over 60 — and that was youngest primary/caucus electorate in the land. 

In New Hampshire, the over-50s made up 44 percent of the Democratic primary electorate, while the under-40s were just 33 percent. In South Carolina, 14 percent were under 30, while 26 percent were over 60 years of age.

Iowa and New Hampshire are overwhelmingly white, but in South Carolina a 55 percent majority are African-American. 

Thus, of the three earliest contests, New Hampshire provides the most fertile demographic ground for Sanders and South Carolina the least, with Iowa in-between.

This gives the senator potential to cause Clinton heartburn early on, but after that it’s smoother sailing for Clinton — assuming the demographic trends hold (while that’s likely, there’s no guarantee).

Only 7 percent of 2008 Democratic primary voters nationwide were whites under 30; almost twice as many were whites 65 and older. White college graduates constituted just 32 percent of the vote. White women were 36 percent of voters and white men 28 percent. 

For now, Sanders’s strength is confined to relatively small segments of the Democratic primary electorate — segments whose importance diminishes as the process moves beyond Iowa and New Hampshire. 

To have any chance of winning the nomination, he’ll have to expand his appeal to a much wider swath of the party.

Meanwhile, Clinton enjoys a hold on an electorate that looks more like the Democratic Party itself — and that is to her great advantage. 

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982. Current clients include the minority leader of the Senate and the Democratic whip in the House.