Leadership consists, in important measure, of creating identities, defining situations, interpreting realities and explaining what’s happening to people in terms that followers understand and can relate to.
Charismatic leadership emerges when the stakes are high, when a sense of crisis pervades the public, when uncontrollable and dislocating change hangs in the air.
{mosads}Some Americans, on both the right and the left, are living in such a time and have found leaders responsive to their psychic needs: Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.
As I argued here earlier, the supporters of these candidates are quite different — and I’ll offer more evidence for that assertion here — but they also drink from some similar wells.
The sense of crisis is multifaceted and deeper in the GOP, hence Trump’s greater degree of success.
The GOP’s leadership crisis is evident in the fact that even before voting began, by 2-to-1, Republicans in a YouGov poll said they preferred an “outsider” to a candidate “supported by the Republican establishment.”
By contrast, Democrats felt no acute leadership crisis, preferring an establishment-backed candidate over an outsider by more than 2-to-1.
Even more striking, exit polls found majorities of Republicans feeling “betrayed” by their party leaders. Few Democrats reported sensing weakness or duplicity.
In addition to this leadership crisis, large swaths of the Republican Party begrudge the country’s changing ethnic composition and express high levels of racial resentment. Those voters form Trump’s base.
A survey of their state by two University of Massachusetts professors found 45 percent of Republicans saying it’s a “bad thing” that the country will be majority minority by 2043.
Trump did 20 points better among those vexed by our changing demography than he did among those who expressed less concern.
Trump’s South Carolina supporters favored shutting down mosques in the U.S. by a 6-point margin. Marco Rubio’s voters, by contrast, opposed that violation of the Constitution by 2-to-1.
Trump created a group identity by powerfully distinguishing an aggrieved “us” from a guilty “them” and offered a clear (albeit completely inaccurate) explanation of why things are the way they are: it’s “their” fault, the fault of the Mexicans and Muslims, the African-Americans and the Jews.
These racial resentments are far less relevant for Democrats, who celebrate a pluralistic, multi-ethnic society, but some voters in both parties still feel profound economic dislocation.
Trump and Sanders blame different groups, but both are unambiguous about where fault lies. For the billionaire businessman it’s with the immigrants, Muslims, Mexicans and foreign cheaters; for the Vermont senator it’s Wall Street bankers and those same foreign cheaters.
Sanders too creates a strong line of demarcation between “us” and “them,” while providing his followers with a simple, easy to understand explanation for their economic woes.
Contrast this identity formation and explanation with the messages of other candidates, which are often focused exclusively on them, not on helping voters understand their reality.
Rubio’s message devolved from the pabulum of “creating a 21st Century economy” and being an “optimistic conservative” to “stop Trump.”
“Us” against “the front-runner” is not a particularly powerful identity (especially when it’s shared with his other opponent), nor does the Florida lawmaker’s “optimism” explain voters’ own situation to them.
Ted Cruz’s message is all about him — he’s a “real conservative who can beat Trump.” The Texas senator is not bestowing an identity on anyone, nor offering an explanation for their circumstances. He offers only his ideology and his own naked ambition.
Hillary Clinton’s current message — that she’s a progressive who gets things done — is also focused on her. Yes, the former secretary of State will accomplish important things for voters, but advocating, even successfully, is different from the charismatic who creates identity or explains reality.
But because of her great personal strengths and because the sense of crisis is far less palpable among Democrats, that’s enough to win the nomination.
It won’t be sufficient for the Republicans facing Trump.
Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982. Current clients include the minority leader of the Senate and the Democratic whip in the House.