Mellman: Weighing the odds

As we say good-bye to the summer and the party conventions fade in voters’ memories, polls suggest two very different sets of people will be disappointed come November: Republicans who thought this would be the year they recapture the White House and Democrats who were convinced Donald Trump would lose in a landslide that would reverberate in Democrats’ favor up and down the ticket.

As we’ve discussed earlier, 2016 had the makings of a good Republican year, with the economy still not roaring back and Democrats seeking a third term. Some even argued that Trump’s “unique” appeal to the angry and disaffected would bring whole new segments of the electorate into the GOP camp.

{mosads}None of that seems very likely now.

Hillary Clinton continues to enjoy a clear lead. Only two of the more than 40 polls conducted since the Democratic National Convention began on July 25 have shown the GOP nominee ahead, and both outliers are suspect for different reasons.

On average, HuffPollster finds Clinton more than 5 points ahead, while RealClearPolitics’s average, computed differently, still yields better than a 3-point margin for Clinton.

Moreover, at this point in the campaign, poll results have real predictive value. In their book “The Timeline of Presidential Elections,” Professors Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien found the candidate who led two weeks after both parties had finished their conventions ended up winning the popular vote in every one of the 16 presidential elections since 1952. 

In addition, the five forecasters who provide numerical odds give Clinton’s chances to win the White House at 70 to 95 percent. And PollyVote, which aggregates different kinds of forecasts, predicts the former secretary of State will prevail by just under a 6-point margin.

Faux experts will by now be screaming that national polls don’t matter. 

But of course they do. Nobody is going to lose the country by 3, 4 or 5 points and win the Electoral College, which matters only in the closest of races. Ohioans, Pennsylvanians, Floridians and Nevadans are people too. If the election moves nationally, it will move in those states as well. 

Even if the national race moved 4 points to a tie — the average of the HuffPollster and RealClearPolitics aggregations — and every state moved likewise, Clinton would still have the electoral votes she needs to claim the White House.

While a Clinton landslide is more likely than a Trump victory, Democrats planning for a blowout, and who are recommending down-ballot strategies based on that assumption, are also likely to be disappointed.

What seemed like a realistic possibility in the heady days just after the Democratic convention was always something of a mirage. History urges us both to expect and to discount post-convention bounces. Shortly after the Democratic convention, Clinton was 8 to 10 points ahead, but that margin has now been cut in half.

On average, her margin has shrunk by a similar 4.4 points in the swing states, but she still leads in those locales by an average of about 4 points.

Yes, Donald Trump is the most unpopular person to run for president in the history of polling. But, unfortunately, Hillary Clinton is the second most unpopular.

Too many Democrats seem to inhabit film critic Pauline Kael’s world. 

After Richard Nixon won 49 states, she observed, “I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they [Nixon voters] are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken.”

Democrats just can’t believe that anyone could support Trump — honestly, I find it hard to imagine myself. Nonetheless, recent polls find the two equally likely to create jobs, equally (dis)honest and equally strong leaders.

Of course, Clinton enjoys massive advantages on empathy, intelligence and temperament — hence her lead in the vote.

But if you’re still expecting a Clinton landslide or a Trump victory, I predict disappointment. 

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982. Current clients include the minority leader of the Senate and the Democratic whip in the House.