We think of “follow the leader” as a rather inane children’s game.
It’s much more than that.
{mosads}In an adult version, it describes how many partisans go about deciding their views on public issues — they follow the course charted by the leader of their party or the party itself.
That’s certainly been the case with Donald Trump and Republicans this cycle.
Consider first GOP support for Trump generally.
On the surface, Sunday’s polls from ABC News and Investor’s Business Daily could not be more at odds: the former has Hillary Clinton leading by 12 points, the latter gives Trump a 2-point edge.
But they agree on one matter: ABC says 83 percent of Republicans are lining up behind Trump, while IDB says it’s 84 percent.
As a percentage, fewer Republican senators are supporting Trump than are rank-and-file Republican voters.
Back in 2015, nearly a third of Republicans said they wouldn’t support him if he were the GOP nominee. It’s hard to argue he’s become objectively more appealing since then, but he has become the leader of the party, and partisans followed him.
Republican willingness to follow the leader goes much deeper, though.
In May 2015, Pew found 55 percent of Republicans saying free trade agreements had been good for the U.S., with 36 percent believing they were bad for the country.
Just over a year later, GOP opinion had flipped, in line with Trump’s views. Sixty-one percent thought free trade agreements were bad — up 25 points — while the number believing they were a positive had declined by 23 points, to 32 percent.
Among Democrats, attitudes barely budged: they were just 2 points less positive and 4 points more negative.
Trump has even changed GOP voters’ values.
In 2011, just 36 percent of Republicans believed someone “who commits an immoral act in their personal life can still behave ethically … in their public office,” according to a PRRI Brookings poll. By October of this year, with Trump’s immorality being trumpeted everywhere, 70 percent of Republicans were distinguishing between politicians’ private and public lives — double the number five years ago.
Here Democrats’ views also evolved, but their level of agreement with this notion rose by a far lesser 12 points.
Perhaps most shocking is the rise in Vladimir Putin’s standing with Republicans since he basked in Trump’s praise.
Between 2014 and July of this year, Putin’s favorables rose 14 points among Republicans, while unfavorables shrunk by 25 points.
By contrast, Democrats’ views were unchanged. Putin’s favorables and unfavorables each went up a mere 2 points.
Republicans are clearly following their leader.
Truth be told, Democrats do much the same thing, though it’s harder to see in the course of a single election cycle.
Voters’ willingness to follow could be a source of optimism about the future.
If they are not irretrievably dug in on some issues, Republicans could be responsive to leadership that pulls them in a different direction.
Responsible Republican leaders could, for example, create support for comprehensive immigration reform, and other consensus policies, among GOP voters.
Alas, it’s unlikely to happen that way.
Trump’s leadership of the GOP has left some crevasses that create pitfalls for Republicans.
While GOP leaders could move their constituents on, say, immigration reform over time, it will take some time, effort and energy.
During that period, some Republicans will no doubt decide they want to wrest control of the party from its current leaders — or its House and Senate seats from their current occupants — who many Republicans already believe have betrayed them.
The latest Monmouth University poll finds 69 percent of Republicans complaining their party leadership has given Trump “too little support.” Just 10 percent take the contrary view, feeling the GOP leadership supported Trump too much.
Frightened of potential primaries and leadership challenges, it seems unlikely that a responsible Republican leadership will emerge to move the party in a fundamentally different direction.
That’s bad for Republicans, and for America.
Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982. Current clients include the minority leader of the Senate and the Democratic whip in the House.