Over this past week, conservative icon Grover Norquist triumphantly tweeted that “24 states with half the nation’s population [are] run by Republicans” controlling both the state legislatures and governorship; the same can only be said about Democrats in 13 states, he said, representing a quarter of Americans.
Norquist’s braggadocio is certainly ill-timed, because with the 2010 governor class up for reelection this year, Republican governors are embattled from coast to coast, in both blue and red states. And while their 2010 majorities allowed Republicans to lock up state legislatures via gerrymandering, their governors enjoy no such protections. Indeed, Democrats have at least nine legitimate pickup opportunities to the GOP’s two or three, with new states seemingly coming into play daily.
{mosads}Let’s start with Democrats’ best pick-up opportunities: Pennsylvania is virtually a done deal, and Republicans are extremely likely to lose the governorship in blood-red Kansas. Conservative voters got a good look at conservative governance, courtesy of Gov. Sam Brownback, and it turns out they didn’t much like it.
In the next tier, Democrats are now favored in Maine, where Gov. Paul LePage is unlikely to be saved by one of the state’s trademark independent-left bids. And in Alaska, a ticket-meld between independent and Democratic candidates has unified the anti-incumbent vote and placed Republicans in the distinct minority.
Then, there are toss-up states, like Florida, where polling shows that recent momentum favors Democrats, and Wisconsin, where polling in perhaps the most partisan race this cycle has consistently shown a neck-and-neck race.
Republicans retain a small edge in Michigan, but with the GOP incumbent mired in the low- to mid-40s in most polling, Democrats have to feel good in a state that generally leans their way. Arizona is tied on paper, with polling showing both candidates stuck in the high-30s to low-40s and an abnormally high number of undecideds. But while Arizona is the inverse of Michigan — undecided voters will likely lean Republican, giving the GOP the edge — it’s a real race.
Georgia Republicans face an unexpectedly tough Democratic challenge in their open red seat, with current polling showing a deadlocked race. But the GOP might be saved by the state’s runoff system: Unless Democrat Jason Carter can crack 50 percent (and he’s far from that mark), the race will be decided in a December runoff, when Democratic base performance, already expected to be anemic in November, will drop off even further. Still, no one is declaring victory yet.
And Republicans are now even sweating their seats in Idaho and Oklahoma. There’s no real nonpartisan polling of those races, though Democrats in both states claim to be within the margin of error. But the numbers don’t lie — that is, the dollars that the Republican Governors Association has spent attacking Democrats in two of the three reddest states in the country. In Idaho, the number is six figures, according to the RGA. In Oklahoma, it’s $200,000.
For their part, Democrats seem to be shoring up their endangered seats. After being left for dead, Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn has rebounded in polling and now has the edge. The same thing seems to be happening in Connecticut. In fact, Arkansas appears to be the only state left that Republicans should pick up.
If Republicans can’t lock away gubernatorial incumbents or safe Republican seats in a year when Democratic base performance will lag, and with an unpopular president potentially hurting Democrats, then the GOP is even more damaged than anyone imagined.
Moulitsas is the founder and publisher of Daily Kos.