Why the US shouldn’t worry about a new cold war

As the conflict in Ukraine drags on and the U.S. also must prepare for a possible confrontation with China over Taiwan, there is growing concern about global tensions becoming larger conflicts. Since the Ukraine war began, there have been a variety of voices on the left and right expressing skepticism about whether the U.S. can achieve its goals in Ukraine by supplying arms, rather than using diplomacy. One argument against the U.S. standing with Ukraine and also with Taiwan is that this would set up a new cold war and that Washington should avoid drawing “red lines” or escalating tensions with the other great powers to create such a scenario.  

The logic of the U.S. and its allies standing with Ukraine, Taiwan and other states that are threatened by authoritarian aggression, of course, is that this preserves world order. Rather than being concerned that this produces a scenario of escalation that leads to a cold war with China and Russia, the U.S. and its allies should embrace the chance to lay out a policy similar to the one that won the Cold War with the Soviet Union. That war was defined by the fact that the U.S. and Russia, both nuclear-armed states, never went to war. They may have fought proxy conflicts, but the understanding that the stakes of a real shooting war were too high often led leaders to step back from the brink. 

The U.S. goal during the Cold War was to contain the Soviet Union. To do this, America created regional alliances, of which NATO became the most successful. This helped to establish a worldwide front line and an understanding with Moscow that generally worked. Russia didn’t seek to invade Turkey or Greece, and generally didn’t intervene heavily in conflicts such as the Korean or Vietnam wars.  

The U.S. and its allies such as Australia and Canada, and its friends in Asia such as South Korea and Japan, already are facing off against China’s muscular foreign and military policy. China has been accused of harassing Canadian war planes, for example. Australia has found itself on the potential firing line. A U.S. destroyer recently performed another “freedom of navigation” exercise through the South China Sea. All this points to the fact that the U.S. and China are already in some kind of a cold war — and that might not be a bad thing. 

Recognizing that we are in an emerging new global cold war with authoritarian regimes will help to lay down some parameters for this conflict. Instead of being concerned that we are entering a new era, we should embrace the notion. Once we accept the reality, we can be clear that we don’t want a nuclear standoff with China or Russia. Despite threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin, it’s clear that Moscow isn’t rushing to escalate into a nuclear confrontation over Ukraine. Instead, Russia is using artillery and missiles to assault Ukrainians and force them to flee the country. 

Providing HIMARs and air defenses is a good way to balance Moscow’s aggression. This doesn’t mean the U.S. is using Ukrainians as a proxy force. Ukrainians want to live in an independent state, free of Russia’s attacks. They deserve the best defenses to achieve that. A key to this point is that they must be able to defend themselves; they aren’t pushing for a victory that leads them all the way to Moscow.  

Similarly, when it comes to Taiwan or other potential flashpoints in Asia, it is up to the local countries to decide if they want to resist potential aggression from Beijing. If they do, they deserve to have their independence. Being wary of confrontation with China simply because Beijing has nuclear weapons doesn’t make sense. The U.S. was not afraid to confront Russia during the Cold War, but Washington and Moscow both understood the stakes.  

Recognizing a new cold war also can benefit strategic policy decisions, such as reorganizing supply lines for things such as semiconductors or microchips. Western countries and their allies didn’t rely on Moscow for their energy needs or food during the Cold War; a more clear-eyed understanding of the need to invest in domestic production and shore up energy needs of countries in Europe will help to weather the coming storm. 

Rather than fearing a future that involves continued tensions with authoritarian regimes such as China and Russia, or their regional allies, Iran and North Korea, it is worth recognizing the new world reality and addressing it head on. 

Seth J. Frantzman is executive director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis. A former assistant professor of American Studies at Al-Quds University, he covers the Middle East for The Jerusalem Post and is a Ginsburg/Milstein writing fellow at the Middle East Forum. He is the author of “Drone Wars.” Follow him on Twitter @sfrantzman.