Generals and their planners during combat operations often look to points on the map that, if seized, can lead to “decisive” strategic or tactical outcomes. Bakhmut, from a Western military perspective, offers neither.
Yet, by vainly obsessing over a small salt mining town located in eastern Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwittingly transforming what he foolishly believed to be “decisive terrain” into highly “divisive terrain” that is threatening to rip apart his combined military and mercenary ground forces fighting in Ukraine.
A fight initially waged to secure a city from Ukraine and establish a firm Russian footing in the Donetsk Oblast has devolved into an epic clash between Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group and Putin’s military for political points in Moscow. Consequently, Russian unity of command (arguably one of the most important of the principles of war) has been undermined, providing Ukraine an opportunity, if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky elects to do so, to seize the initiative and push Russian ground forces out of the Donbas region.
The Battle for Bakhmut and control of its 16 square miles is now 10 months old, and Putin has little to show for it except the town’s complete annihilation. What once was a thriving industrial city is now an endless series of interconnected trenches and fighting positions. Streets and fields are littered with destroyed tanks, armored personnel carriers and corpses. Forward progress is measured in feet — and slowly gained by exhausted men engaged in fierce, violent close quarters combat.
By all accounts, thousands have lost their lives and limbs for a few meters of ground and the ego of one man — Putin. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, 191,420 Russian soldiers have been “eliminated” since the special military operation began on Feb. 24, 2022 — upwards to 90,000 occurring after Jan. 1, 2023, in and around the battlefields surrounding Bakhmut.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby provided a significantly different estimate, putting the number of Russian soldiers killed in action since December at “more than 20,000,” with as many as 80,000 wounded in action. The preponderance of those casualties took place in Bakhmut, with as many as half of the casualties coming from the Wagner Group.
Regardless which estimate you believe, one thing is clear as Kirby and the Pentagon noted — the Russian offensive has failed. While the significance of the city for Putin and the Kremlin continues to baffle Western military analysts, its outcome will likely contribute to Russian success or failure in the Donbas, and the war’s conclusion.
In addition to the loss of life, the Battle for Bakhmut has strained the relationship between Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The growing animosity between the two groups extends down to the individual soldier level as well, evidenced by reports of an exchange of gunfire between Wagner Group forces and the Russian military in the Luhansk Oblast on April 23.
The Wagner Group has experienced more success in Ukraine than any of Russia’s elite units – the spetsnaz, airborne, or naval infantry, which has created a rift between the two competing factions as Putin demands a victory by May 8, in time for the Soviet Victory Day Parade on May 9. Each day that passes without a win allows Russian national propagandists and milbloggers to weigh in with their withering opinions. In a stalled offensive, both sides are looking to deflect blame to the other.
After complaining for months over the lack of ammunition and artillery support, Prigozhin is beginning to see the futility of the situation. His losses have become unsustainable. On April 28 he told a blogger that, “Today we are coming to the point where Wagner is ending … Wagner, in a short period of time, will cease to exist. We will become history, nothing to worry about, things like this happen.”
On April 30 Prigozhin ratcheted it up a notch and threatened to withdraw his mercenaries from Bakhmut. “Every day, we have stacks of thousands of bodies that we put in coffins and send home,” Prigozhin said. “If the ammunition deficit is not replenished, we are forced – in order not to run like cowardly rats afterward – to either withdraw or die.”
Prigozhin may have an ulterior motive. He may be looking to preserve his forces for what might be the bigger prize should Putin and his generals fail — becoming a modern-day czar himself of the Russian empire.
Ukraine, conversely, is in a position to turn Russia’s “divisive terrain” in Bakhmut into Kyiv’s “decisive terrain” and accelerate the timeline for Moscow’s withdrawal. Local counter attacks are reclaiming lost territory daily, but their momentum is limited, allowing Russian forces to reset and try again the next day — reminiscent of Bill Murray’s “Groundhog Day.” In that movie, Murray learned from his experiences, then used his knowledge to leverage outcomes in his favor. Eventually the Russians will too — one notable example is that the Russian daily casualty rate fell over 30 percent in April as they appear to be going on the defensive.
To take advantage of Putin’s “divisive terrain” in Bakhmut, the Biden administration, NATO and European Union (EU) must further synchronize support of Ukraine. It is time to focus on the tools needed to win, not just the volume of military hardware.
The EU can begin by ending its own divisive disagreements and coming to an agreement on the joint purchases of ammunition for Ukraine — and to quit tripping over France’s short-sighted insistence that all munitions production and arms supply chains be European. The luxury of that argument is for after the war; get Ukraine the ammo they need now.
The U.S. needs to enable the HIMARS they provided Ukraine to fire ATACMS, then get them the F16s they need to strike deep targets with precision. President Biden should listen to the advice of General Christopher Cavoli, commanding general, U.S. European Command, who is dual-hatted as supreme allied commander of Europe — commanding NATO Allied Command Operations. Lead from the front and enable Ukraine to win the war.
It is time to turn Putin’s “divisive terrain” in Bakhmut into “decisive terrain” for Kyiv — and the entire Western world.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division and the Intelligence and Security Command. He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012-14, working with NATO partners in the Black Sea and Baltics. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
Mark Toth is a retired economist and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing and global commerce. He is a former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis, and has lived in U.S. diplomatic and military communities around the world, including London, Tel Aviv, Augsburg, and Nagoya. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL.