One war, one speech, and one aggressive, rising China 

With Xi Jinping gaining influence in the Indo-Pacific region, Americans need to understand the history behind his ambitions. Two pivotal events significantly shaped the trajectory of Asia today, indirectly giving China the liberty to dominate the region and extend the People’s Republic of China’s communist impact throughout Asia. 

These two fateful events were the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945), and a 1950 speech given by U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson, outlining the limits of U.S. involvement in Asia.   

China, Japan, and South Korea, also known as the East Asian Triangle, make up the world’s second, third, and 10th largest economies. While these nations’ economic achievements are impressive, their relationships to one another are complex, grounded in the historical turmoil of 19th- and early 20th-century wars, and shaped by America’s political decisions after World War II.

In the 1930s, China’s National Party nearly eradicated the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in what had been an ongoing civil war. By 1934, the CCP was almost extinct, with most of its forces annihilated by Chiang Kai-skek’s Nationalist Army. However, an infamous unexpected incident on the Marco Polo Bridge in 1937 then ignited the Second Sino-Japanese War, forcing the nationalists and communists to unify against a common Japanese enemy. This led to the resuscitation of the CCP. 

In the absence of this war, the Nationalist Army would likely have wiped out the Red Army, and China’s political landscape would look very different today.   

Some years after the Marco Polo Bridge incident, another consequential event would follow. On January 12, 1950, U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson addressed the National Press Club with a speech that delineated the Acheson Defense Perimeter Line. This line, a strategic boundary, marked the extent of U.S. military protection within the Pacific. It ran along the Aleutian Islands, the Ryukyu Islands, the Kurile Islands, and the Ryukyu-Taiwan-China coast. However, this strategic perimeter excluded both Korea and Taiwan. 

The implications of the speech were immense. It signaled to China, the Soviet Union, and North Korea that the U.S. held limited interest in Asian affairs and that these regions were not within the immediate sphere of American security concerns. Furthermore, the lack of U.S. intervention in the Chinese civil war and its decision to remove its soldiers from mainland China and South Korea indicated that the U.S. was unlikely to interfere in future East Asian matters.  

This hands-off approach encouraged the communist powers to expand their influence in Asia. In particular, the Soviet Union, initially hesitant to support North Korean ruler Kim Il Sung’s plans to invade South Korea, was emboldened after the Acheson speech. A mere six months later, the invasion of South Korea marked the beginning of the communist expansion.

Over the next few decades, communists backed by the Soviet Union and China moved into Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, triggering a series of civil wars. While the short-term consequences of the policy triggered communist expansion throughout Southeast Asia, the exclusion of Taiwan from the defense perimeter and the refusal to recognize its independence nation have taken longer to evolve. The repercussions of the Acheson’s speech are still evident today.  

These two historically significant events underscore how minor policy shifts can profoundly influence stability. Some other examples include troop withdrawals, such as those from Iraq in 2011 and Afghanistan in 2021, which inadvertently signaled a reduced U.S. commitment to regional stability.  Despite the absence of major conflicts in East Asia for over 40 years, underlying tensions exist. Persistent issues such as North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and China’s growing global influence are becoming increasingly problematic.

In this geopolitical landscape, the strategic partnership with Taiwan is paramount. Today, Taiwan’s importance to the U.S. and global economies cannot be overstated, as it produces over 30 percent of the world’s manufactured microchips and over 92 percent of its advanced microchips. Safeguarding these production and design facilities from falling into the hands of China is a top security priority.  

The 2022 National Security Strategy starkly underlines this reality, noting, “The People’s Republic of China is the only competitor capable of reshaping the international order, equipped with the intent and the expanding economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so.”  

As China flexes its muscles, the U.S. must reassess its approach, considering historical perspectives and present complexities of the East Asian region. This requires long-term vision and clear goals, as well as a focus on assisting Asian allies in building internal defense capabilities. It also requires a robust and consistent U.S. presence in the region. 

This strategic approach will not only help navigate the challenges presented by the likes of North Korea and China, but also contribute to lasting peace and stability in East Asia.  

Col. Henry C Brown, U.S. Army, is a National Security Affairs Fellow for the academic year 2022-2023 at the Hoover Institution. The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Army, U.S. Department of Defense or the U.S. Government.