Russia’s warmongers are turning against Putin

The recent arrest of Igor Girkin, a prominent Russian military commander and vocal critic of Vladimir Putin’s faltering war in Ukraine, signals a concerning shift in the Kremlin’s approach.

Rather than address growing discontent over his flailing invasion, Putin seems intent on silencing dissenters through force and prosecution.

Girkin, better known by his nom de guerre “Strelkov,” was a leader of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014. His recent arrest on charges of “discrediting” the Russian army came shortly after he derided Putin as a “mediocrity” and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as “incompetent.”

Such blunt criticism would have been unthinkable just months ago, when Girkin was seen as untouchable, given his stature among nationalist hardliners. Yet Girkin is also a controversial figure. A self-described Russian nationalist and spy-turned-soldier, he was found guilty in absentia last year of murdering 298 people onboard Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 after he and two others shot down the passenger jet over eastern Ukraine in 2014.

After the incident, Girkin quickly returned to Moscow, where he has been beyond the reach of an extradition order ever since. Despite his criminal past, Girkin retained strong standing among nationalist factions in Russia prior to his arrest this month.

The recent attempted mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group military contractor, further reveals cracks in Russia’s power structure. Prigozhin has attacked the Russian Defense Ministry leadership over their “carelessness” in the Ukraine operation. Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of the Russian group of forces fighting in Ukraine, is believed to have been detained days after Wagner’s mercenaries staged their revolt inside Russia.

In short, rather than contend with the substance of such grievances, Putin seems bent on silencing dissent by using intimidation and legal pretexts. 

Both Girkin and Prigozhin are products of Putin’s own aggressive warmongering rhetoric. In order to drum up popular support for the invasion of Ukraine, Putin radicalized Russian society with militaristic propaganda about Ukrainians — for example, that they are overhwlmingly Nazis and part of a fake national culture.

Now that he faces only military failures, Putin likely wants to pause the war to rearm. Yet he cannot explain this pivot to the bellicose factions that bought into his rhetoric, and they are becoming unruly.

This authoritarian tightening of the screws coincides with Russia’s strategic pivot toward negotiating with Ukraine. Putin would probably just use peace talks to rearm and regroup. Thus, he can lend superficial credibility to Russia’s claimed readiness for dialogue by casting people like Girkin as reckless warmongers.

Putin also seeks to eliminate potential threats from hawkish critics if he pursues a reduced war strategy or negotiated settlement. Hardliners like Girkin command respect among nationalist factions of the Russian public. Their defiance exposes the weakness of Putin’s leadership and his failure to deliver decisive victories. Hence the need to marginalize them through imprisonment. 

Ivan Popov, the commander of Russia’s 58th Army in Ukraine, was dismissed from his position earlier this month after criticizing the lack of artillery support as well as a high death toll among Russian soldiers.

The West must see through Russia’s false willingness to negotiate. Putin’s peace overtures are tactical maneuvers, to buy time and divide Ukraine’s allies in preparation for more violence. To be sure, a tactical pause won’t restore Russia’s battered military capabilities. It will only delay the underlying reckoning, so long as the West sees it for what it is and remains united.

Even so, Putin’s recent national security strategy doubles down on anti-Western rhetoric and ambitions to upend the global order. And his military continues indiscriminate missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian targets — hardly the actions of a leader sincerely pursuing peace. 

From Kyiv’s perspective, it’s clear that Putin is in a tight spot, with the Russian army suffering significant losses and its missile stockpiles severely depleted. Though Putin ramped up aggressive rhetoric to support the invasion, he now lacks concrete achievements to sate the resulting bloodlust. With only minimal territorial gains, Putin permits some criticism while feigning readiness to negotiate, aiming to maintain his public support despite the lack of decisive victories.

Rather than take Putin’s olive branch as bait, the West should maintain and even increase military assistance to Ukraine. Only battlefield reversals that conclusively shatter Russia’s capacity to wage war will compel Putin to seriously pursue peace. 

Meanwhile, Girkin’s arrest is also creating a martyr for nationalist factions within Russia. Putin is playing a dangerous game by provoking his hawkish critics. Continued battlefield failures in Ukraine, coupled with ham-fisted attempts to silence detractors rather than address their criticisms, risks provoking serious unrest.

Hardline elements within the military and security services already feel betrayed by Putin’s management of the war. Transforming Girkin into a persecuted political prisoner could make him a potent rallying point for this opposition. Putin may find that his heavy-handed efforts to keep a lid on dissent have the unintended effect of galvanizing threats to his power. 

Maksym Skrypchenko is president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center.