How the dream of Middle Eastern security integration was shattered overnight

Over the last three years and across two presidential administrations, the U.S. has pursued a vision of tying the Israel Defense Forces and the armies of neighboring Arab nations in a revolutionary Middle East security architecture. This groundbreaking partnership would detect and counteract shared threats, primarily those from Iran.

That vision was shattered on Saturday with Hamas’ stunning coordinated attack on Israel. This weekend’s attack is the region’s 9/11. It will reshape the Middle East security architecture for decades. But it wasn’t just the ferocity of the attack that sounded alarm bells.

Immediately following the attack, a chorus of regional responses began to echo, underscoring the depth of division that persists despite diplomatic efforts. Such an audacious act of aggression by Hamas was in itself profoundly destabilizing. Yet, the ensuing regional responses underscore the chasms between the would-be allies. More than just diplomatic rhetoric, the sentiments broadcast by Saudi Arabia and Qatar following the attack clarify the profound rifts that remain, perhaps irreparably so.

The statement from Saudi Arabia, implicating Israel and showing hints of empathy for Hamas, was revealing. This deviation, from a country that seemed on the path to normalization with Israel, shakes the very foundations of the proposed security architecture.

Qatar’s response squarely attributed the escalation to Israel. Alarmingly, the unity in messaging between Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and notably Iran presents messaging consensus against Israel and, by extension, against American interests, deviating sharply from the ideals of the proposed security integration.

The Abraham Accords, instituted under the Trump administration, initially considered a long shot, had shown surprising signs of promise, with diplomatic engagements between Israel, Bahrain, and the UAE. Over the last two years, invested in and expanded on by the Biden administration, these accords were touted as the harbinger of a transformed Middle East, where Arab nations and Israel were not adversaries but collaborators.

In light of this weekend’s attack and the public statements from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, it seems both administrations overestimated the readiness of the region to realign its loyalties.

The Biden administration’s pursuit of a unified Middle Eastern security framework was commendable. Such an alliance had the potential to usher in stability to a historically turbulent region. More importantly, it would invest greater authority for security in regional powers, allowing the U.S. to focus more of its resources on the Indo-Pacific.

Washington remained resolute in this effort for three years, assiduously pursuing a defense diplomacy campaign and investing significant resources in military exercises. These endeavors, like this year’s Eagle Resolve 23, aimed to highlight the collective strength of U.S. and regional forces. This exercise, inclusive of Gulf Cooperation Council militaries, focused on integrated air and missile defense and counter-drone activities.

The signs may have been there all along. For example, the reactions of crucial Gulf Cooperation Council states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have always been unenthusiastic. The UAE still harbors grievances over what it perceives as a lukewarm U.S. response to the Houthi missile attack of January 2022. The Emirati ruler, Mohammed bin Zayed, has not hesitated in sidelining the Biden administration’s reconciliation efforts. His recent decision to withdraw the UAE from a U.S.-led task force safeguarding pivotal sea lanes around the Arabian Peninsula was a deliberate snub to Washington.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s pivot toward China was another indicator that an American-led regional security construct may never have worked. Riyadh continues to increase its arms purchases from China, looking east rather than to the U.S. to adjudicate its conflict with Iranian proxies. Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia agreed to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a China-led political, economic, and security cooperation that rivals Western institutions, as a “dialogue partner.”

Meanwhile, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was always simultaneously negotiating with Jerusalem, Beijing, and Washington, constantly pushing for security assurances, preferential access to U.S. weaponry, and backing for a civilian nuclear energy initiative. The constant negotiations underscore the shifting, uncertain sands upon which any such regional security alliance with Israel would be built.

For the U.S., this revelation carries profound implications. It demands an immediate reassessment of foreign policy priorities in the Middle East and a recalibration of American engagements with regional allies. The U.S. must now navigate a landscape in which old rivalries will reemerge. So, too, will traditional Arab alliances against Israel

The alignment of Israel with Arab militaries was always too ambitious an endeavor. The Hamas attack and the responses from regional powers emphasize a crucial lesson, one advocated for many decades by Henry Kissinger: shared adversaries, even ones as significant as Iran, are insufficient to bridge the deeply entrenched divides of the Middle East.

Joe Buccino is a retired U.S. Army colonel who serves as an A.I. research analyst with the U.S. Department of Defense Defense Innovation Board. He served as U.S. Central Command communications director from 2021 until September 2023. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense or any other organization.