Our country relies on satellites — we’re in big trouble if Russia takes them out 

The White House coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council recently held a press conference where he informed the public of a recent intelligence community assessment regarding Russia’s pursuit of anti-satellite (ASAT) “capability.” Though he didn’t go into specifics, he did mention that President Biden had informed allies of this new threat, and that the other four “Five Eyes” countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) had been informed of this challenge. 

Since the earlier days of space exploration, nations have been concerned about nefarious activity above the Earth’s atmosphere. In October 1967, 110 countries (including the Soviet Union, now Russia) ratified a treaty banning weapons of mass destruction in space; the desired effect was to keep this domain safe to allow for unimpeded peaceful exploration. 

Fast-forward to today, and though the intelligence community has carefully approved the use of the word “capability” rather than “weapons,” there are those who speculate that Russia’s pursuit of an anti-satellite capability is akin to a nuclear-capable weapon.  

This would not only go against established norms of the types of activity allowed in space but could be seen as an existential threat to the U.S., the “Five Eyes” countries, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and other allies and partners. In a scenario of a war with a high-technology adversary such as the U.S. and NATO, Russia would seek to eliminate that advantage. 

The intelligence community relies on satellites to gather information on potential foes. The National Security Agency uses them in gathering signals intelligence; both the National Reconnaissance Office and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency acquire imagery from these platforms. Without the accouterment of intelligence-owned satellites, the U.S. and other allies are potentially “blind” in knowing what an adversary is up to. 

The Defense Department is also heavily reliant on satellites. The department uses these to enable standoff with unmanned aerial vehicles, which can be flown from half a world away, thus overcoming traditional line-of-sight limitations. Moreover, the Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) constellation allows for precise weaponry to be used for targeted kinetic strikes, significantly limiting collateral damage in times of war. The Defense Department also makes use of satellites to track friendly forces vis-à-vis blue force trackers, to help avoid fratricide, and relies on them for voice and data communications. 

Many industries, including health care, logistics, construction and agriculture, rely on satellites and GPS technology. The world’s financial sector is dependent upon it as well. Even in one’s personal life, GPS has made ground travel much easier by everyday users being able to pull up directions on their smartphones.  

The prevailing threat of ASAT weapons to the “Five Eyes” countries is a concern not just to these five countries but to members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and other Western democracies that share similar values. Anti-satellite weapons are not a new phenomenon but they do present a formidable challenge regarding life as one knows it; if Russia takes things to a new level and if it disregards the weaponization of space, not only would the capabilities specifically mentioned earlier be at risk, but there would be further unintended secondary and tertiary effects that could occur that are not known at this time.  

The U.S. and its allies must engage diplomatically with Russia and pressure the Kremlin to move away from these efforts. Coordination with NATO allies and other nation states to make a common stance would prove more convincing. The pursuit and emplacement of weapons of mass destruction in space in the form of an ASAT weapon will have crossed a red line. There still appears to be time to resolve this issue, but not much time.   

John Weaver, DPA, is associate professor of intelligence analysis at York College of Pennsylvania. Tom Røseth is an associate professor and head of the Ukraine Program, Oslo, Norway at the Norwegian Defense College. They are coauthors of a forthcoming book titled, “The ‘Five Eyes’ Intelligence Sharing Relationship: A Contemporary Perspective” (Palgrave Macmillan).