Biden or Trump, foreign policy in 2025 is anyone’s guess

Now that both parties have chosen their presumptive nominees, the 2024 presidential campaign is off and running. Given the number of international crises and dangers at play, foreign policy should be atop the list of critical topics for debate.  

But barring a Pearl Harbor-like crisis, that will not be the case if history is prologue.

Regardless, Democrats will blast Donald Trump for asserting that he may abandon NATO and Ukraine, appease Russia and impose crippling tariffs, principally on China and Europe. How he will deal with Iran and the war in Gaza is likely to involve spontaneous and not thoughtful reactions. Worse, Trump will forego traditional U.S. international leadership, retreating into an America First, MAGA Potemkin-like sanctuary.

Republicans will be no less harsh with President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, starting with the disastrous 2021 retreat from Afghanistan. Biden will be eviscerated for inconsistency and weakness in not facing up to Iran and its surrogates, especially the Houthis’s threat to block passage through the Red Sea. His aid to Ukraine will be seen as excessive and without an exit strategy. And his fight with Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu will be another example of Biden’s anger dictating policy.

But make no mistake. These sound bites and talking points are just that and do not consider the most critical factors and forces that will shape U.S. foreign policy after the election. No matter who wins, if this Congress does not pass or delays approving military aid to Ukraine, its conditions will be untenable, leaving the president-elect with no good options.  

Who controls either end of Pennsylvania Avenue in January 2025 will be the most determinant factor. In the unlikely event that one party performs a hat trick and wins the White House, the Senate and the House, the extreme left or right will affect policy considerations at home and abroad. That will not be good in either case.

If one party wins only the White House and loses both Houses of Congress, dysfunctionality will become permanent barring an unexpected event until 2028. If one party wins the White House and the Senate, that will at least allow some business, such as moving confirmations forward. If one party wins the presidency and only the House, gridlock is inevitable.  

The conclusion is that no outcome looks good for America’s governance.

If Democrats win, the foreign policy centerpiece will be rebuilding the middle class. That aim is as barren in content as the Gobi Desert. If Republicans win, right-wing extremists will accelerate an American international pullback with potentially dire consequences.  

Despite these somber prospects, with elections less than eight months away, predictions about future foreign policies are as useless as King Cnut explaining his powerlessness by ordering the ocean to recede. And, of course, much rests on the next president’s character, judgment and personality.

If Trump wins, it is impossible to guess what his mood will mean for foreign policy. Trump has been the ultimate flip-flopper since his first days as a Democrat. 

He “fell in love” with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, whom he previously derided as “Little Rocket Man,” making his extraordinary meeting with the leader an embarrassment. One got whiplash watching how he declared NATO obsolete then took credit for forcing the alliance to spend more on defense and now declares that Russia “can do whatever the hell they want,” to NATO countries that don’t meet spending goals. Once opposed to China’s control of TikTok, he now says any change in ownership is unnecessary.

Trump declares he is strongly pro-military. Then he calls the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff he appointed a “traitor.” He belittled U.S. soldiers who died in combat as “losers” while cynically claiming physical disqualifications from the Army five times during the Vietnam War. And he dismissed former Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) as a failure because he became a prisoner of war in that war.

Biden has not seriously reevaluated his foreign policy to correct weaknesses and failures. Nor has he stated what he intends to do internationally if reelected. He must explain why he has not done so.

Foreign policy is not the sole or most important issue facing Americans. Yet, both candidates refuse to assess objectively the international challenges, threats and dangers confronting the nation or propose effective responses and policies. Instead, sound bites and talking points continue to substitute for critical thinking. Voters beware.

Harlan Ullman Ph.D.  is a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD:  How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” is available on Amazon. He can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.