Yahya Sinwar in the crosshairs

Sin and war often go together. In the case of Yahya Sinwar, they have demonically melded together.

The Hamas military chief has been elevated to political chief, now that Israel has killed his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, last week in Tehran.

Haniyeh’s past evil sins against humanity in the Middle East — greed, avarice and plotting — are now fully under the control of Sinwar as he assumes the reins of Hamas’s bloody war of terror against Israel and its civilians.

The timing of Sinwar’s elevation is curious. Initially, it was thought Khaled Meshaal would resume his role as chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, an office he previously held between 1996 and 2017 prior to Haniyeh. Sinwar purportedly vetoed this.

Other candidates included Hamas spokesperson Khalil al-Hayya and one of Hamas co-founders Mousa Abu Marzouk. 

Yet, it was Sinwar who bagged the gig.

On the surface, this could simply be Hamas messaging to Jerusalem that the gloves are now fully off — that Hamas’s military and political factions are now fully united as they continue to wage their genocidal war against Israel. 

It could also be a sign of weakness. Sinwar, perhaps, realizes (despite reports to the contrary) that his Hamas forces in Gaza are being rapidly depleted and their fighting strength and command and control decimated. 

Selecting Sinwar, in that regard, may be an attempt by Hamas to obfuscate that military weakness by forcing the Israelis and their Egyptian and U.S. intermediaries to directly negotiate any ceasefire with him. 

Or it could be a lot deeper. 

Iran might well be behind Sinwar’s unexpected rise to absolute power. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may have decided to double down on Sinwar and Hamas after being humiliated by Haniyeh’s assassination in the heart of Tehran on the same day as new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration. 

Israel Katz, the foreign minister of Israel, certainly believes this is the case. He views Iran as trying to widen the conflict, plotting to use Hamas to gain full political and military control over the West Bank. 

Fatah, under the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas, remains ostensibly in control of the West Bank, but Hamas continues to expand its grassroots influence. To solidify Fatah’s hold, Abbas traveled to Beijing earlier in June to sign an economic “strategic partnership” between China and the Palestinian Authority. 

Then, in late July, perhaps as an end run around Hamas’s growing clout, Abbas pledged “to form a unity government to govern the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip following the end of the Israel-Hamas war.” Notably, China brokered the deal that also included 12 other Palestinian factions vying for power.

It is difficult to believe this agreement will ultimately hold. Similar past agreements between the two Palestinian groups have not held, and Fatah and Hamas have been bitter enemies for decades. In 2007, they fought a civil war that resulted in Hamas taking control of the entire Gaza Strip, while Fatah remained in control of the West Bank.

Sinwar, recognizing that and looking for a path to his personal survival and that of Hamas, may have concluded that closely aligning himself with Khamenei was his only play. Likewise, Iran might be wary as well of China’s machinations in brokering a deal that could result in Beijing asserting far more influence over Palestinians in the future versus Tehran.

Abbas seems to sense that Iran is likely attempting to play him. On Tuesday, it was announced by Russia’s RIA state-controlled news agency that he would travel to Moscow in mid-August to meet with Russian officials. 

Yet Russia too is likely playing a deep game. On Monday, Sergei Shoigu, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s new secretary of Russia’s security council, traveled to Tehran to urgently meet with Pezeshkian. 

Moscow wants distraction for its war in Ukraine when it wants it. Oct. 7. proved that in terms of covering Putin’s counteroffensive in Avdiivka.

However, especially as F-16s enter service in Ukraine and Ukrainian military forces are reportedly conducting a ground incursion into Kursk, Russia, the Kremlin likely does not want to be indirectly dragged into a war between Israel and Iran. Moscow needs Iranian-made drones flowing to Russia, not for Tehran to become a drain on increasingly scarce Russian air-defense assets such as the S-400.

It was then reported by two unnamed Iranian officials that Putin had asked “Khamenei for a restrained response to Israel’s suspected killing of the leader of Hamas, advising against attacks on Israeli civilians.” Translation: Putin, for now, cannot militarily afford for the Mideast to spin out of control. He fears an Iranian drone and missile attack causing significant Israeli casualties would do just that.

Elevating Sinwar, in that regard, might be Putin and Iran’s interim Plan B. Especially as Tehran accelerates its rapidly expanding nuclear weapons program. Doing so would keep the fight largely localized in Gaza and Lebanon – and would continue to cause a deepening divide between Jerusalem and Washington.

Sinwar is likely more than willing to play the part. Personal survival may well be on his mind; however, he has also known for a long time that he is a dead man tunneling. 

Rarely is anything a certainty in the Middle East. Deciphering the region is indeed akin to looking through a Kaleidoscope. One slight twist to the left or right and everything changes. And right now, there are a lot of subtle twists being made. Not just by Sinwar, Iran and all the usual suspects. But by Moscow and Beijing as well.  

One thing is certain: Sinwar has moved to the top of Mossad’s target list. Eventually, as they nearly always do, they will likely get their man. That too, may be part of the Axis of Evil’s long term plan. 

Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014.