Figuratively speaking, all roads in Iran are dangerously leading to Tehran’s nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz.
From there, they are increasingly interconnected in spider-like fashion to dozens of other nuclear weapons sites strategically located throughout the vast country nearly the size of Alaska.
Iran is hellbent on achieving a nuclear endgame. To achieve it, though, it needs more time. Playing for time is now Tehran’s number one strategic tactic in becoming a nuclear power. It informs everything that the country does in its calculus against the West.
This is why Tehran appears to be holding back from immediate retaliation against Israel for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran — and why, if it happens in the near term, it likely will be limited and symbolic. It may also underpin Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s new statement that there is “no harm” to resuming nuclear negotiations with Washington.
Time is the one commodity Washington does not have. Despite the prevailing view that Iran’s nuclear program had been curtailed since 2015, the reality is that Tehran has been accelerating its nuclear weapons program all along.
For too long, the West — as well as the International Atomic Energy Agency — failed to call out Iran’s ambitions. Instead, diplomatic euphemisms were employed and the growing radioactive nuclear white elephant in Tehran was ignored. No longer.
In May, for the first time, International Atomic Energy Agency director-general Rafael Grossi finally came close to acknowledging that Iran is aggressively pursuing nukes. Still, the diplomatic doubletalk continues.
Grossi framed Iran’s progress as one of “moving closer to a situation where there is a big, huge question mark about what they are doing and why they are doing it.” Yet, with all due respect, there is no question mark. We have long known the deadly answer. Iran is building a nuclear weapons arsenal.
You do not need to be a nuclear physicist to understand this. Basic math suffices. Ninety-percent highly enriched uranium is needed to achieve nuclear weapons-grade. Iran presently is at 60 percent HEU, and probably higher, if not already amassing stockpiles of mass enriched to 90 percent.
There is no innocent explanation. Fuel rods for nuclear power plants and nuclear material for medical experiments, for example, require only 3 percent to 5 percent enrichment. There is only one reason for exceeding 5 percent. Iran wants the ability to unleash a nuclear Armageddon. Israel will not let that happen — Iran knows that. So Tehran hopes to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Israel by reopening negotiations with the the Biden administration, since this would buy much-needed time.
Andrea Stricker’s latest reporting is that “Iran is shockingly close to nuclear breakout.” Earlier in June, she writes, “Tehran installed numerous new uranium-enrichment centrifuges at its Natanz enrichment plant and its underground Fordow site, more than tripling the latter’s capacity to produce uranium enriched to 60 percent purity….Tehran could have nearly 1,400 IR-6 machines spinning at the highly fortified Fordow site, along with hundreds more new advanced machines at Natanz.” If we’re not there yet, Iran will soon be.
David Albright reports for the Institute for Science and International Security that Iran could have enough weapons-grade HEU to build three nukes in 10 days, five nuclear weapons in a month and a total of nine in 60 days. Of course, constructing them is one thing, and delivering them is another.
In July, Washington started to get the message. Iran has a nuclear endgame that cannot remain unchecked. But it is becoming increasingly clear that Washington does not have a plan to end Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Significantly, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence acknowledged in an agency latest report that Iran continues to do everything consistent with weaponizing its accelerating nuclear program, including “installing [even] more advanced centrifuges, further increasing its [HEU] stockpile.”
That’s just the unclassified version. The classified report is setting off alarm bells across Congress. On CBS’ Face The Nation, House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner (R-Ohio) warned that Iran “might declare themselves a nuclear weapons state by the end of this year.”
We really are in “If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and walks like a duck, it is a duck” territory with Iran. Khamenei likely gets that, hence his signaling that he is open to further negotiations.
Undoubtedly, Iran’s offer stems from its feelings of vulnerability. Israeli intelligence has penetrated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other government institutions. Iran’s air defense networks can be penetrated on demand, a weakness Israel exposed in April when it took out a single air defense system defending Natanz. Ditto Jerusalem’s successful pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah earlier this week and the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran.
Washington cannot be fooled again. Iran is not being cowed or deterred. Khamenei is merely playing for time until he can achieve nuclear weapons status. We are well past the point of no return. No amount of money, sanctions-relief or delay will prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.
President Biden and his administration must now finally act and make good on his White House statement of August 2022, pledging to Israel that the U.S. will “never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.”
Iran has an endgame against Washington. It is time for the Biden-Harris administration to put a decisive end to Khamenei’s nuclear folly. We can no longer risk waking up to a nuclear 9/11, be it in Washington or in the Middle East.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer.