Biden, can you spare a DIME?

President Biden has multiple tools at his disposal to influence the behavior of other countries. These instruments of national power are traditionally referred to by the acronym “DIME” — diplomatic, informational, military and economic.

Newer acronyms have come into play that highlight additional tools the White House has at its disposal. MIDFIELD, for example — military, informational, diplomatic, financial, intelligence, economic, law and development.

Regardless of the acronym or the tool, Joint Doctrine Note 1-18 reminds us that “each instrument of national power works most effectively when it is supported by and operates harmoniously with, the other instruments of national power.”

Biden and his team of national security advisors have yet to fully embrace that concept, especially in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The White House tends to over-rely on one of those tools — economic, in the form of sanctions. Biden’s economic sanctions have not deterred Russia’s war against Ukraine, nor have they curtailed Iran’s looming nuclear breakout. Indeed, since the beginning of the war 31 months ago, they have had a minimal effect on Russia.

Russian GDP is expected to grow 3.2 percent in 2024 according to the IMF, as compared to projected European Union GDP growth of only 1.1 percent. This despite a U.S. Department of Treasury report issued in December 2023 stating, that “sanctions and export controls are damaging Russia’s economy and limiting its access to the financing and material goods needed to wage its illegitimate war of choice.” 

China and India are largely the reasons Biden’s sanctions have not worked. Since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Chinese and Indian imports to Russia have increased over 150 percent and 50 percent, respectively.

Moscow is also relying heavily on a shadowy network of shipping fleets to transport goods, commodities and oil in circumvention of U.S. sanctions. To fill those freighters, Russian companies are buying U.S. and Western technology and “equipment on the secondary market through a web of suppliers in China,” and then using ports in Morocco and NATO-member Turkey to ship them to Russia.

In a similar vein, Russian oil tankers are frequently spotted in the Gulf of Kutch in northwestern India. The International Energy Agency has estimated that India purchases 45 percent of its oil imports from Russia. As of May, India had become the largest importer of “seaborne Russian crude.”

Yes, sanctions have had an effect, but Russia is “getting by with a little help from its friends.” The sanctions did not have the desired crushing effect on the Russian economy that the Biden administration had anticipated. Nor have they stopped an estimated 300 American companies from still operating in Russia — including, according to B4Ukraine, Philip Morris International, Mars and PepsiCo. 

The E in DIME was not enough, just as the administration’s Joint Doctrine had warned. It was not enough in February 2022, and it still is not enough in September 2024 — not against Russia, and not against a nuclear-ambitious Iran.

The permissive environment established by the Biden administration virtually assured Putin there would be no direct military response from the U.S. or NATO. It was made clear early and often throughout the war that military force would be used to defend Ukraine, not to drive the Russian invaders out of the country. This removed the M instrument of national power from the DIME equation.

Putin thought it would take 10 days to defeat Ukraine; then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley believed Kyiv would fall in 72 hours. Both underestimated the resolve of President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian people and overestimated the capabilities of the Russian army, whose weakness has been laid bare.

Putin gambled on a quick win followed by a “reset” with the West that would end sanctions. He also assumed that Russian energy — oil and liquid national gas — would divide NATO countries, many of whom were dependent upon its uninterrupted flow during the winter months.

He was wrong on both accounts. The invasion of Ukraine united NATO, dried up Russian exports to Europe, and eventually caused the alliance to grow to 32 member countries with the addition of Sweden and Finland.

American diplomatic efforts have fallen short as well. Unwillingness to confront an emerging Russian threat, even though the U.S. intelligence community accurately saw the buildup, effectively neutered this instrument of national power. For diplomacy to have an effect, it requires leverage to back it up.

The White House is also losing the information war. Russian and Chinese disinformation has run rampant across U.S. social media, as evinced by the Russian state-controlled media company RT orchestrating “a series of ‘covert projects’ that included funneling $10 million through a series of shell entities to a Tennessee-based company launched in 2023 that publishes videos on TikTok, Instagram, YouTube and X, formerly known as Twitter.”

Putin had the correct read on the Biden administration and NATO leadership. As the Chinese military strategist and philosopher Sun Tzu once said, “Know thy enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated.” But he got Ukraine and his own military dead wrong. Now 31 months into a war, with over 628,930 casualties and over 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory occupied by the Ukrainian military, he has painted himself into a corner.

Whereas Team Biden was overly dependent upon economic sanctions as a deterrent, Team Putin was overly dependent on his military to provide him Ukraine in time to celebrate the Russia Victory Day Parade in Kyiv by May 2022. Each instrument of national power was respectively ineffective in isolation.

But Biden, NATO, and Ukraine still have time. If Biden fully utilizes all the instruments of national power — military and information specifically — he can apply leverage to come to a diplomatic solution; namely, the peaceful withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. 

But that requires a decision, a commitment, and then most importantly – follow through, something this White House has struggled to do in Ukraine and against Iran, the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah in the Middle East.

Biden’s meeting with Zelensky this week is monumental, leaving many Americans and Ukrainians to wonder, “Biden, can you spare a DIME?”

Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.