Conrad departs

For McConnell to lead the upper chamber, Republicans needs to pick up at least three seats in the next election cycle, and, barring something unusual, he already has one in his pocket.

{mosads}Conrad, a budget hawk who can go deep in the policy weeds while also reading the broad political winds, opted not to seek a sixth term for several reasons. 

In an e-mail to supporters, the 62-year-old senator wrote, “There are serious challenges facing our state and nation, like a $14 trillion debt and America’s dependence on foreign oil. It is more important I spend my time and energy trying to solve these problems than to be distracted by a campaign for reelection.”

Conrad would have faced a daunting reelection bid, especially in the red state of North Dakota. 

During the last Congress, Conrad’s North Dakota colleague, then-Sen. Byron Dorgan (D), similarly retired instead of seeking another term. Last November, then-Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.), the at-large House lawmaker for the state, lost his reelection race.

So in a span of two cycles, it is likely North Dakota will be represented by three Republicans after Democrats dominated the congressional delegation for two decades. 

In 2012, Democrats will be defending 23 seats while Republicans will be defending 10. Senate Democrats exceeded expectations in 2010, losing only six seats when some political analysts predicted they would lose 10. 

But the electoral future is bright for the GOP. That’s good news and bad news for McConnell, who must manage high expectations from donors.

Republicans will target many Democrats next year, including Sens. Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Ben Nelson (Neb.), Herb Kohl (Wis.), Jim Webb (Va.), Joe Manchin (W.Va.), Bill Nelson (Fla.), Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Jon Tester (Mont.) and Bob Casey Jr. (Pa.). 

There also has been speculation that Kohl and/or Webb will not seek reelection. 

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), meanwhile, has scheduled a press event Wednesday to detail his 2012 reelection plans. Lieberman, who endorsed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for president in 2008, caucuses with Democrats, though he has not ruled out running as a Democrat, Independent or Republican next year. 

The list of vulnerable Republicans is short: Sens. John Ensign (Nev.) and Scott Brown (Mass.). And Brown has a huge campaign war chest, while Ensign might not survive a primary because of ethics controversies. 

The news for McConnell, at least for now, is promising.