Egypt’s citizens in search of a leader

Cairo, Egypt — A political festival of one million people was held in Cairo on Tuesday. Despite the continued shutdown of the Internet, transportation problems and a curfew, Egyptians came in the hundreds of thousands to Tahrir Square to tell President Hosni Mubarak, once again, to go.

His effigy was hanging in the square, but this has to be the most courteous demonstration the world has ever seen. Volunteers checked IDs and organized separate ladies’ entrances into the square, where tanks stood guard. But the soldiers were smiling and nobody felt threatened after the army announced on Monday night that they would not fire on the people whose demands are “legitimate.” There were Egyptians from all walks of life — workers and middle-class professionals, family groups, students and actors. 

{mosads}Although Mubarak has now said he will step down in the fall, many are disappointed with the Obama administration’s failure to publicly distance itself from the Egyptian president — interpreted here as support for the beleaguered 82-year-old leader. One placard in English read: “Obama — 80 million friends or foes — your choice.”

But I think the administration has been right to insist on an “orderly transition” or free, fair and credible elections now that the policy has shifted from Hillary Clinton’s early determination that the Mubarak government was “stable.” The administration has to tread carefully, because although it has a stake in Egypt’s stability, it runs the risk of being accused of interfering in the internal affairs of a nation. And frankly, given the U.S. experience in Iraq, where the invasion had the unintended consequences of reinforcing Iranian influence in the region, what credibility does America have in lecturing others in the Middle East?

The U.S. should be working behind the scenes to ensure a peaceful, democratic outcome and a dignified exit for Mubarak, who has held the West in his thrall for so long by warning that the alternative to his repressive government is the extremists. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fully bought into that argument by speaking of his fears of an Islamic takeover in Egypt after Mubarak.

Judging by the past week’s extraordinary show of civic courage by the average Egyptian citizen, we should trust the Egyptian people, who have demonstrated a political maturity entirely lacking in their rulers. They don’t want an Islamic takeover. But right now, they are more focused on the ouster of the president and his ruling clique than on the transition. They say they are determined to continue the popular protests until Mubarak is removed from office.

Over the last 30 years, Mubarak has done a thorough job of destroying potential political challengers. Until now, the movement with the strongest public support has been the banned Muslim Brotherhood. Other parties, including that of Ayman Nour, who was raised to prominence in part thanks to Condoleezza Rice, are split or remain marginal. Newcomers like Mohamed ElBaradei, who has offered to serve as a figurehead in a transitional government, are unlikely to have the support of the army, which remains the ultimate arbiter in Egypt.

Unfortunately for the U.S., the man put in charge of the transition, Vice President Omar Suleiman, may find his efforts doomed because of his close association with Mubarak. The Muslim Brotherhood, which has played its cards cleverly so far by remaining in the background during the popular uprising, has let it be known that it will not negotiate with Suleiman. 

It may look hopeless, but I believe that the courage and discipline of the Egyptians themselves over the past week gives us reason for optimism. This is a young people’s revolt, and a new generation of Egyptians has just discovered politics and their right to determine their own future. For this, we must be thankful.

Anne Penketh is former diplomatic editor of The Independent and a contributor to The Hill’s Pundits Blog. She is Washington Program Director of the British American Security Information Council.