Democrats, let’s move: Hillary for vice president

If you read the columnists, listen to the pundits and talk to the usual crowd of Washington insiders, all you get is visible pain when the idea of an Obama-Clinton ticket is floated. Could the Beltway crowd have it wrong once again?

Remember the Jan. 31 debate in Los Angeles when Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) debated one on one for the first time and the biggest applause line of the night was Wolf Blitzer’s suggesting the possibility of a “dream ticket”?

Of course, there is no such thing — every ticket is flawed to a certain degree. But, right now, given the task before the Democrats, Obama-Clinton gives us the winning formula and may be just what is needed to play beyond the Beltway.

Let’s look at the multitude of reasons why. Democratic unity is critical as we move toward November. Democrats can ill afford to have their Democratic base, as expanded as it is, become split. If Obama wins 90 percent, or thereabouts, of the Democratic vote he will win. If he loses 20 percent or more of that vote, it could be big trouble.

John Kerry won 89 percent of the Democratic vote, Bush won 93 percent of the Republican vote and Kerry won the independent vote 49-48 (37, 37 and 26 percent, respectively, of the electorate). In 2000, Gore won 86 percent of the Democrats, Bush won 91 percent of Republicans and Bush edged out Gore with independents, 47-45. But because Democrats outnumbered Republicans 39-35, as we know, Gore “won” by 500,000 votes.

If Obama can bring the Hillary Clinton Democrats back in the fold, McCain is clearly toast. The fear for Democrats, of course, is that the anger among women voters, seniors and Hispanics about the nomination will cause them to vote McCain or stay home. Both possibilities are devastating to Democrats.

Look at the situation with women voters. They were 52 percent of the electorate in 2000 and 54 percent in 2004; presumably they will be higher in 2008 given the primary turnouts. Gore won 54-43 among women, Kerry a narrower 51-48. Obama needs the female vote — and he especially needs female Democrats.

Hillary Clinton can help unite those voters. In addition, there is a potential problem if Obama chooses another woman — Govs. Janet Napolitano of Arizona or Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, for example —and passes over Hillary. Clinton ran hard and, many believe, earned the loyalty and admiration of this voting bloc. The question would be:  Why didn’t you choose her — why another woman who hasn’t been tested?

Look also at Clinton’s strengths with Hispanic voters and her primary victories of over 2-1 with this voting group. One-third of California’s population is Latino, and Democrats need to lock this state up. In swing states such as New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and even Florida, the Hispanic vote is growing rapidly and could well be key to winning those states. The New Democratic Network (NDN) predicts there will be 14 million registered Hispanics by November and over 3 million more will vote than in 2004.

And don’t forget working-class Democrats in the big states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan, as the Clinton forces keep reminding us!

Finally, the Clinton strength among older voters will help Obama. The 60-and-over crowd is over 20 percent of voters, and Obama needs to do well there.

Other candidates mentioned do not add a great deal to the ticket. Former Georgia senator and defense expert Sam Nunn and former Gen. Wes Clark could hurt Obama by emphasizing the “experience” issue.

Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, a key state, is pro-life — not a good idea if you want to bring women back into the campaign. There are others who are excellent public servants and probably fit the old adage of “do no harm” but don’t solve the problem of ensuring unity.

Will Hillary accept it, I don’t know; will Obama offer it, hard to say; will she bring “baggage” as she says, you bet. But she has run an extraordinary race and she brings a tough, pragmatic, tested voice to the table. A strong voice that works well on the campaign trail and in government can’t be underestimated.

It may be just what the Democrats need to bring the party and the country together … outside the Beltway.

Fenn heads the Fenn Communications Group, a political and public affairs media firm, and is a regular contributor to The Hill’s Pundits Blog.