Ham-handed administration threatens unprecedented public support for Ukraine

Few major issues unite American public opinion, but the war in Ukraine does. Yet the Biden administration’s inconsistent response, lack of planning and poor messaging threaten American public support for Ukraine.

A remarkable consensus — not just favoring Ukraine over Russia, but in how to respond — emerged quickly. Sanctions, financial aid, sending arms all had support from over 66 percent of Americans overall (YouGov March polling). Split out by party and ideology, the extremes (liberal/conservative, Democrat/Republican) were in closest agreement, while moderates and independents were less supportive — but even so, the weakest support was 60 percent of independents favoring sending more weapons.

Even more ground-shifting was the hawkishness of liberals. On every measure except “get tougher,” liberals were more aggressive against Russia. If abiding hatred for Putin and recognition of the security danger of fascist Russia is an effect of their collective delusion over the 2016 election, then maybe the Russia hoax wasn’t all bad.

In recent polling, public consensus has generally held up. Americans still overwhelmingly view Russia as an “enemy” or “unfriendly” (86 percent), view Ukraine as an “ally” or “friend” (76 percent), support sanctions (73 percent), sending arms (65 percent) and even accepting Ukrainian refugees (61 percent); No partisan ideological demographic is in net opposition.

But there are cracks showing: Republican and conservative support has edged down — not toward Russia, but toward a neutral stand.

Support for Ukraine aid by conservatives has fallen from 66 percent in favor with 19 percent opposed to 50-30. Whether the U.S. should “get tougher” fell from 58 percent with conservatives (59 percent GOP) to 43 percent (same for Republicans). Willingness to accept refugees has fallen below half for conservatives, from 53-25 percent in favor to 46-35 percent.

Durable so far, can this consensus withstand the maladroitness of the Biden administration?

The early returns are not promising.

Support for Ukraine is an interesting combination of liberal hatred of Putin, conservative suspicion of Russia, an American cultural strain that roots for the underdog, and revulsion at the atrocities committed by a Russian military that is less professional army than horde of violent marauders.

Team Biden is undermining this consensus in three key ways: 1) blaming domestic problems on the war in Ukraine; 2) failing to pursue a coherent policy and 3) atrociously incompetent messaging.

Faced with rising inflation, Team Biden couldn’t wait to pin the blame on Putin. Thus far, this tactic has not helped. Biden has come up with few solutions for domestic policy problems, and blaming the pariah Putin is a tempting move. Considering the disruption in fertilizer, food and energy markets, things are likely to get worse and may result in more Biden blame-shifting, further undermining support for Ukraine. Fortunately for Ukraine, the Republican Party is unwilling to let Biden off the hook. Relentless pounding by the GOP that Biden is to blame — not Putin — is likely helping to limit Republican softening.

Biden stumbles forward — and backward — supporting Ukraine

Team Biden could reduce their problems if they actually had a coherent policy — either to force a compromise or give Ukraine the wherewithal to truly wreck the Russian war effort, instead of just enough to grind forward. Does Biden even have a plan? It doesn’t look like it. Granted, the first rule of Fight Club is you don’t talk about Fight Club. But Team Biden’s actions seem like a never-ending circle of timidity, aggression and back again.

It’s apparent that the only way to end this war is to make Russia’s losses intolerable. By refusing to provide Ukraine with the ability to strike into Russia and/or end the Black Sea blockade, Biden plays into Putin’s need to insulate Russians from direct costs. Instead, the destruction is fully contained within Ukraine.

Biden’s policy feels like a series of dove v. hawk v. public polling compromises, resulting in policy mush.

Fear of escalation is falling for Putin’s bluff, not to mention that scorched-earth methods and civilian massacres leave little for Ukraine to worry about regarding retaliation. At least Biden managed finally to figure out the Russian nuclear threat isn’t real — of course, he should have understood that three months ago.

Messaging mumble

Above all, it is Team Biden’s messaging that is the most egregious. Messaging is the one thing over which the administration has control — and they can’t seem to figure it out. Rallying American opinion thus far has been easy, given Russian brutality and the dexterity and sophistication of the Ukrainians. But Team Biden isn’t helping.

First, the administration and their handmaidens in the American foreign policy establishment are hung up on defending the “international rules-based order.” Fine — but not exactly a catchy bumper sticker. It is incomprehensible that Biden can think that is a winning issue. Domestically, few Americans are going to be moved by some fuzzy abstract principle — which past presidents of both parties have violated with impunity, by the way. Internationally, the so-called “international order” doesn’t look so good to Africans or Indians struggling to make ends meet.

This argument may get people at Georgetown cocktail parties all worked up, but it hardly moves the needle with people outside The Beltway. Rules-based order rhetoric just shows how insular and distant American foreign policy boffins are from the main concerns of the American people; these experts seem to view national security policy as their personal property, not to be touched by outsiders (and these same people wonder how Trump gets applause).

What Team Biden needs to say — clearly and repeatedly — is how Russia’s actions are against the direct interest of Americans and our best allies in Europe.

Putin’s attack has irresponsibly thrown food and energy markets into turmoil, which harms every American and people throughout the world.

Ukraine may not be a perfect democracy, but it is improving and a potential place for American investment and trade.

Russia is also clearly a threat to nations like Poland, Slovakia, the Baltic states and Romania — and it is these countries, not feckless Germany, that are the most loyal and supportive allies of the U.S., not only in Europe, but on the world at large. Not only is it important for American credibility to defend their interests, Americans surely don’t want to be viewed as walking away from friends in need.

Thus far, Biden has been able to ride the aggression and atrocities by Putin to keep American support for Ukraine. But his missteps are mounting. If he loses that support and fumbles away this war, he will pay a price in November far beyond anything anticipated today.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.