The ink is barely dry on the concession speeches of dozens of defeated Republicans, and Donald Trump has brazenly (as if there were another way) demonstrated his plans for the next two years of his presidency.
The initial tactic, either wishful thinking or delusional prevarication, was his pronouncement that the Democratic drubbing was “very close to [a] complete victory” for Republicans.
It’s pretty hard to see how losing dozens of reliably Republican seats in the House and losing control of the House itself, not to mention losing governorships and Senate races in states he carried just two years ago, constitutes “victory.” Even Senate Democrats who lost ran well ahead of the Clinton numbers in 2016. Given the truly awful seats in play, it is miraculous that the situation is not significantly worse for Democrats, which would have complicated their chances for Democratic control in 2020.
Trump’s swift actions since the election illustrate his likely strategy going forward. He knows that if Democrats succeed in keeping the focus on policy issues, voters will sympathize with those who address immigration, gun policy, health care, voting rights and such issues, and will become increasingly frustrated with those who get out of bed every day to obstruct popular legislative initiates.
That is why Trump has moved so quickly to throw handfuls of reeking chum into the roiling political waters, hoping to divert Democrats into an investigatory frenzy that casts them as retribution-seeking zealots.{mosads}
Less than a day after his election disaster, Trump successfully seized headlines by firing Jeff Sessions, the Attorney General he has detested for two years. Democrats jumped into that fight immediately, with prospective Judiciary chairman Jerry Nadler correctly insisting that all relevant records related to Sessions’ “resignation” be preserved.
Trump then appointed a Sessions acolyte, Matt Whitaker, as acting Attorney General without any immediate prospect of Senate approval (an act called “unconstitutional” by no less an authority than Kellyanne Conway’s husband, a conservative legal authority). Whitaker, who makes Nixon’s terrifying attorney general, John Mitchell, look like Mr. Rogers, will presumably now be in charge of the Mueller investigation of Mr. Trump and his campaign. He has certainly boned up on the subject. He has already declared “there was no collusion with the Russians and the Trump campaign,” and he expressed skepticism about the authority of Congress to issue subpoenas to a sitting president. Insulating Trump from subpoenas, of course, would help ensure that information disproving Whitaker’s dubious conclusion is hidden from Congress.
Just to be certain the new majority has plenty to investigate, Trump also signed a proclamation curtailing the ability of refugees to seek asylum in the United States. It seems unlikely Trump will follow through on his pre-election promise to spend tens of millions of dollars to dispatch thousands of troops to the border to intercept the so-called “caravan” wending its way through Mexico. Instead, he will try to flex executive muscle to prevent unlawful entry despite well-established law assuring admission of genuine asylum seekers.
In all these steps – and surely, many more to come – Trump is hoping the provocative chum he tosses into the water turns the Democratic House into an uncontrollable turmoil as camera-seeking congressmembers climb over each other for cable TV glory.
The more he is able to cast his opponents as revenge seekers instead of problem solvers, the more difficult it will be for the newbie Democrats in dozens of Republican-leaning districts to convince their new constituents they’re not simply partisans.
Democrats have to conduct reasonable oversight – an important responsibility – while still addressing the long list of policies that have been largely ignored over the past eight years of Republican Congressional rule.
Subpoenas may be a necessary step in uncovering motives and misbehavior, but they shouldn’t be the first step. Instead, Democrats must demand accountability: the rationale behind administration efforts to weaken health care, international treaties, environmental standards, and the like. Where are the data, the legal rationales, and the public engagement? If they hit a stonewall of resistance, subpoenas may be the only remaining step.
But in the meantime, voters will demand accountability from Democrats just as they delivered a message of no-confidence to Trump and Republicans on Tuesday.
John A. Lawrence, former chief of staff to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is a visiting professor at the University of California Washington Center and the author of “The Class of ’74: Congress After Watergate and the Roots of Partisanship.” Follow him on Twittter @JohnALawrenceDC.