In Shinzo’s shadow, Japan fears ‘if Trump’ 

Moshi Tora. That’s the compact phrase now spreading like wildfire in Japan. It means “If Trump,” and is often said with a sense of foreboding. 

This haiku-like, four-syllable phrase is short for the longer sentence: “What if Trump wins the presidency again?” Tokyo, like many foreign capitals, is in a mild panic over the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House. 

Tokyo is worried that the reemergence of Tariff Man will lead to a new reign of tariffs on Japanese goods, as well as renewed bullying to spend more on defense. But Japan’s deepest fear is that former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who was gunned down in the summer of 2022 in a rare act of political violence in Japan, is no longer around to manage Trump.  

Thanks to Abe’s deft handling of Trump 1.0, Tokyo escaped those chaotic years without too much damage. Abe proved to be, hands down, the best manager of Trump among world leaders. 

But Japan’s current low-key prime minister, Fumio Kishida, does not look capable of an Abe-like repeat performance. Nor does any other Japanese politician. 

It was not a foregone conclusion that Japan would fare well when Trump became president. Donald Trump made a name for himself in the 1980s as a fierce critic of Japan’s trade practices. And even as a candidate he frequently vented against Japan. 

But Abe knew how to deal with Trump. As other world leaders contemplate Trump 2.0, they ought to revisit Abe’s approach, although most are probably incapable of replicating it. 

What was Abe’s secret? 

He understood perhaps better than any other leader that with Trump, flattery will get you everywhere. At their first meeting (and Abe was the first foreign leader to meet Trump after his election), he gifted Trump with a set of gold golf clubs. They famously became golfing buddies thereafter. 

On top of gold clubs, according to Trump, Abe nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize. And Trump was the first world leader to meet Japan’s new emperor in 2019, something Abe orchestrated. In their dozens of in-person meetings and phone calls, Abe routinely praised the controversial president. 

Even to the casual observer, it’s clear that Trump’s ego could easily fill the Grand Canyon. Abe was very willing to accommodate it. In other words, Abe was willing to sacrifice his own ego, which itself was very big. This is something that world leaders are rarely willing to do. 

Abe also could focus on his own strategic goals. Abe thought former President Barack Obama was naïve when it came to dealing with China. Japan had been the victim of China’s high-handed economic coercion and understood as early as 2010 that China was its biggest strategic threat. 

At the time, the U.S. did not share that view. Abe, and many in the Japanese government, much preferred Trump’s no-nonsense approach to China, even though his style was disorderly. Abe wanted to capture that gusto for Japan’s advantage. 

Abe had a natural respect for the power of the U.S. presidency and the office. Even if he did not care for Trump’s personal behavior, he was able to put aside his reservations for more important goals. His ability to do so paid off big for Japan. 

Abe convinced Trump to embrace his Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy. That strategy is now the cornerstone of the U.S.’s approach to the region, and one could argue that strategic success alone was worth all of Abe’s fawning. 

Next, Abe understood what his citizens wanted: a strong relationship with the U.S. America looms largest in the minds of the Japanese. 

Without the U.S., Japan would be helpless to counter the threat from China and rogue actors like North Korea and Russia. In terms of direct investment, Japan has poured more into the U.S. than any other country. In short, it is Japan’s indispensable ally. 

It’s not as if Abe did not endure any criticism for cozying up to Trump. Some called him Trump’s lapdog. But overall, the Japanese public approved of Abe’s deft handling of Trump. 

Finally, Abe was an outspoken nationalist and conservative. So ideologically he was closer to Trump than he was to Obama. Sharing a similar political philosophy surely helped bring the two together. 

Japan’s leaders are already scrambling to hedge against Trump 2.0. In January, former prime minister Taro Aso, who is vice president of the ruling party, visited the United States. Part of the reason for his trip was to secure an audience with Trump. Lacking Abe’s juice, he failed in the attempt.  

So, as the U.S. races toward Election Day in November, Moshi Tora will remain top of mind for Japan. Along with the related question for which there is no ready answer: “Without Abe, who?”  

David Boling works at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group as director of Japan & Asian Trade.