In an already chaotic presidential election campaign, the coronavirus has added a new and profound twist. The unavoidable economic downturn and problems with the federal response to the crisis should mean that Trump is finished. But could the coronavirus actually help Trump get re-elected?
If the public decides that the Trump administration botched its response, he has no chance.
At this point, Trump’s polling on the issue is mixed. As states began lockdowns in the middle of March, Trump got a significant polling bump. But recent polls have shown him edging back to his general approval rating — between 45 percent and 50 percent — for both his handling of coronavirus and overall job approval. Trump also continues to trail Biden, as he has for the past two years although by a narrower margin than in the summer.
Net negative job approval and trailing Biden has been Trump’s political lot his entire administration. With that dynamic set in stone, might the coronavirus epidemic shake up a contest that has seemed a forgone conclusion?
There are three factors that could work in Trump’s favor, and anti-Trump media play a key role.
The expectations game
From the start, many media outlets have heavily criticized the Trump administration efforts and talked doom and gloom. Trump has been roundly ridiculed for over-optimistic statements. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) muses about a new Great Depression. Estimates of total deaths have been as high as 1.7 million. There is no doubt that the country is going to go into a significant recession of undetermined length and casualties will be high.
However, the bar for “success” has been set very low — not just by Trump, but primarily by the media outlets he disdains. Every end-of-the-world report depresses public expectations. Since politics is all about perception, the anti-Trump media have done the president an immeasurable service in their criticism. Trump doesn’t have to do a good job against the coronavirus — he just has to do a barely competent job to exceed expectations.
With new estimates bringing the expected mortality toll down to approximately 60,000 and a collapse of the health care system — even in hard-hit regions — looking to be a much more remote possibility, Trump is set up to declare a victory of sorts. Certainly, there could easily be more flare-ups or a return of the virus in force in the fall, but Trump may well win an expectations game his opponents set up perfectly for him.
The blame game
Determining responsibility for the spread of the pandemic in the United States is like “Murder on the Orient Express” — everyone did it. Whether it is the Chinese (blamed by 90 percent of Republicans and 67 percent of Democrats) or a World Health Organization whose main competence appears to be toadying to China, Trump has two easy targets on which to focus his considerable bile.
And, while the Trump administration was not ahead of the curve in preparation, neither was the rest of the world. The European Union failed to act, even as an outbreak began sweeping Italy. Japan looked to have successfully avoided a major contagion, only for it to hit in the past week. Outside of South Korea and Taiwan, hardly any developed country has escaped an outbreak.
Trump is helped in the United States by the failures in the New York City region. The states of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut account for approximately half of all confirmed cases (Note: “confirmed cases” is certainly a severe undercount of the total, but assuming that the American states and other developed democratic nations have roughly the same error rate, “confirmed cases” can be used for comparison purposes). The late response by New York politicians, scandalously encouraging people to go out and not disrupt their lives, allow Trump to drop blame for half the epidemic on leaders in a state that did not and will not vote for him.
For every attack levied at Trump, he has a response that may resonate with enough voters to either win the argument or sufficiently muddy the waters.
Economic recovery — or not
Until the coronavirus, the United States was experiencing the longest continuous economic expansion in its history. Yet Trump has had trouble translating the expansion into polling advantage. His approval on the economy is 55 percent approve to 36 disapprove, including a 55-29 approval among independents. In addition, Joe Biden evinces low confidence, trailing 34 percent to 43 percent, on handling a recession. Nonetheless, Biden still leads the ballot test.
The length of the expansion puts the country in uncharted territory. After over 10 years, people may well consider a low-inflation, expanding economy the norm and not give Trump much credit — or at least not put the issue as a priority. In fact, the economy has long been the second most important issue for Democrats and Independents, according to the YouGov benchmark polls.
Ironically, the inevitable downturn from the coronavirus may restore the economy as a top issue if the pandemic passes. If the country is able to enter an expansion by election day, Trump could finally get the polling bump he has long missed.
A long way to go
The path of the coronavirus pandemic is incomplete and highly uncertain.
We don’t know what will happen when the current restrictions are loosened. We don’t know how quickly the economy will respond. New outbreaks could occur unpredictably. New treatments could work or fail.
At this time neither Trump nor Biden have much control over the election.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, is a public affairs consultant who specialized in Pennsylvania judicial elections. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.