Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is abhorrent, barbaric and contemptible. There can be no disputing or arguing that assessment. But what the world has been saying and doing since the invasion gets a little murky. As more lives are lost in Ukraine, and its cities and neighborhoods are reduced to rubble, military options against Russia become much less tenable. In desperation to do something, world leaders and others have imposed punishing sanctions on Russia — which, ultimately, may hurt the Russian people more than Putin and his cronies.
With these sanctions and boycotts of Russian-made goods, I can’t help but think of Winston Churchill’s speech to the House of Commons in 1948, where he rightfully warned, paraphrasing philosopher George Santayana: “Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.”
{mosads}By and large, the Russian people are not the enemy. Like most of us, most of them simply want to find some happiness while dealing with their daily struggles. Most Russians are not the “elites” or oligarchs with ties to Putin. They are ordinary men and women who are trying to pay bills, feed their families, make medical appointments, avoid trouble, and sometimes afford a vacation. But their lives, too, can be battered or upended by the whims and dictates of leaders who run their country and are beyond their power to control or stop.
The growing anger and finger-pointing that many are projecting on Russia and her people reminds me of a critically important date in history: June 28, 1919. On that day, in the Hall of Mirrors at the Palace of Versailles in France, the powerful of the world signed a treaty to punish Germany for World War I.
Years after the rise and fall of Nazi Germany, many historians came to wonder how much the punitive measures inflicted upon the people of Germany because of that treaty may have played in the creation and growth of Adolf Hitler’s evil regime in the 1930s.
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Although Germany technically was part of the negotiations of the Treaty of Versailles, the treaty was presented to it as a fait accompli by Britain, France, Italy and the United States. As the Allies deemed Germany the aggressor, the treaty stipulated that Germany alone was responsible for making reparations to the Allied nations for losses and damages they suffered in the war.
In punishing Germany’s leaders, the leaders of the Allied nations ultimately extracted their pound of flesh directly from the German people. It was determined that the country had to pay the Allied nations $33 billion — an amount that financially crippled the country and literally caused starvation, suicides and other deaths.
As the people of Germany suffered the unintended consequences from the Treaty of Versailles, resentment began to build within the population against the Allies — and the world — for imposing such punishment upon them. That resentment may have slowly pushed millions of German citizens into the arms of a madman and his National Socialist German Workers’ Party, who spoke of avenging the humiliation and deprivation forced upon Germany by the Allied nations.
Today, some of us who follow world events wonder whether history might repeat itself. Will the punitive sanctions against Russia and the boycott of Russian goods ultimately push more Russian citizens into the arms of another malignant leader — perhaps the leadership of the People’s Republic of China? Will it cause Russians to resent Putin, or simply intensify their loyalty to him? If the latter is what happens, what will be the negative fallout for Europe and the world?
{mossecondads}Banning Russian oil, pouring Russian vodka down drains, forcing businesses in Russia to cease operations, and imposing severe sanctions against the country may make our leaders feel as though they are taking action for the good — but, sadly, some or even much of it seems to have had little to no direct, personal effect on Putin. The trick is to find ways of punishing him and those who support or enable his dictatorship, without devastating all of the Russian people and thereby succeeding only in strengthening Putin’s hand.
The first rule of any dictator is to stay in power, no matter what. For decades, while Cuban revolutionary Fidel Castro was alive and in power, the United States hit the island nation with sanctions and embargoes. These had no direct effect on Castro, but they often crushed the Cuban people.
Vladimir Putin is responsible for the invasion of Ukraine and its horrific toll. He must answer to the world. Until that time comes, however, we must remember and learn from how the Treaty of Versailles proved to be a merciless mistake that helped to give rise to the Nazis and likely served as a catalyst for World War II — and not make a similarly costly error again.
Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration. He is the author of “The 56: Liberty Lessons From Those Who Risked All to Sign The Declaration of Independence.”