Harris, Trump in virtual dead heat in major swing states

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are nearly tied in the major swing states that will play a deciding role in the election, according to polling released Thursday by The Hill and Emerson College Polling. 

Trump narrowly leads Harris, 49 percent to 48 percent, in each of Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, while in Arizona, he leads 49 percent to 47 percent. Trump’s leads are within the survey’s 3-point margin of error in those states. 

The two candidates are deadlocked at 49 percent in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Harris leads 48 percent to 47 percent in Nevada, within the margin of error in the Silver State.

The latest polling is emblematic of how tight the race has become less than a month out from Election Day, though it did show some slight shifts in support. 

Harris lost a point in Arizona and North Carolina since the last Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted three weeks ago, but gained a point in Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trump, on the other hand, gained a point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina but lost a point in Georgia and Nevada. Harris’s support remained unchanged in Michigan and Nevada, while Trump’s remained unchanged in Arizona and Wisconsin. 

“With the race still deadlocked and just under four weeks to go, it remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director at Emerson College Polling. 

In terms of favorability, Harris and Trump share somewhat similar ratings. In Georgia, 52 percent of voters said they have a favorable view of Harris, while 48 percent said the same about Trump. Fifty-one percent of voters in Michigan and Wisconsin said they had a favorable view of Harris, while 48 percent said the same about Trump in Michigan, and 49 percent in Wisconsin.

Fifty percent of voters said they had a favorable view of Harris in North Carolina and Nevada, while 52 percent said the same about Trump in North Carolina and 45 percent in Nevada. Forty-eight percent of voters in Pennsylvania and Arizona said they viewed Harris favorably, while 50 percent said the same about Trump in Pennsylvania and 49 percent in Arizona.

Further down the ballot, in statewide races in the swing states, the polling showed Democrats enjoying leads over their GOP opponents. In North Carolina’s governor’s race, which has been rocked by a number of scandals surrounding Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, Democrat Josh Stein leads, 50 percent to 34 percent.

In Michigan’s Senate race, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) leads her GOP opponent Mike Rogers 49 percent to 44 percent, while in Arizona’s Senate race, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) leads Kari Lake 50 percent to 43 percent. In Nevada’s Senate race, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads Republican challenger Sam Brown 50 percent to 42 percent. 

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted Oct. 5-8. The sample size in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin was 1,000 likely voters apiece, leading to a 3-point margin of error for each state. In Michigan, 950 likely voters were polled, for a 3.1-point margin of error, and 900 likely Nevada voters were polled, for a 3.2-point margin of error.