Obama’s speech: Five things to watch

President Obama on Thursday night will set out his plans for executive action on immigration.

It’s a bold move for a president coming two weeks after a humbling midterm defeat for Democrats, and suggests that the White House is not interested in giving ground to Republicans about to have full control of Capitol Hill.

{mosads}Obama’s announcement has triggered a full-scale battle already.

Republicans accuse him of acting like an emperor, and lawmakers have been talking for the past week about stopping the order through their power of the purse.

That has raised questions about whether the fight could lead to another government shutdown, something GOP leaders want to avoid.

Polls show majority support for providing a path to citizenship to workers in the country illegally, but opposition to executive action by Obama.

This suggests both sides will be fighting for higher ground with public opinion, and Obama’s prime-time address represents his attempt to seize the higher ground.

Here are five things to watch tonight from Obama’s speech.

How big will Obama go?

Immigration activists and congressional Democrats have been urging the president to go as big as possible with the order.

They want him to eliminate eligibility restrictions to his Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program that already gives legal status to people brought to the country illegally as children.

Obama is widely expected to open the program up to the parents of U.S. citizens or permanent residents. Immigration activists have also pushed Obama to include the parents of current DACA recipients, although Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said Thursday the White House had ruled out that option.

The president could also expand current visa programs, like the H-1B program for skilled workers.

Obama’s order is intended to satisfy activists disappointed over the decision to punt action until after the election. If he disappoints them again, it could cost him valuable support when Republicans go on the attack.

Reagan and Bush

Obama is likely to talk about how former Republican Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush took actions that granted legal status to millions of immigrants — without authority from Congress.

Reagan and Bush took executive action that gave legal status to the spouses and children of illegal immigrants who had been given legal status under legislation approved by Congress in 1986. The executive actions gave legal status to as many as 3 million people.

Liberals have highlighted the actions by the two Republican presidents to show that Obama’s promised moves have historic precedent. Conservatives have fired back that there is a big difference between acting after Congress approved legislation, and acting after the failure of the legislative body to move forward.

Obama wants to show that what he’s doing is reasonable, and tying his policies to the actions of Reagan and Bush is key to that approach.

Congress’s failure

Obama will cast his actions as necessary given Congress’s inability to move legislation over the past two years.

The Senate in 2013 approved a comprehensive immigration reform bill that some Republicans support. The bill included measures to address border security but also provided a path to legal status for millions of workers in the country illegally.

But the bill was never taken up by House Republicans, a fact the White House has repeatedly criticized over the last two weeks and a point Obama is expected to harp on Wednesday night.

“Just two weeks ago, when Speaker Boehner was doing his post-election news conference, he was asked by reporters in that news conference if he would commit to bringing up immigration reform legislation in the next Congress, and he wouldn’t do it,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Thursday, referring to Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio).

The White House wants to position Obama against the Republican Congress, and argue he is taking action because of Washington’s inability to move beyond gridlock.

The danger for the White House is if voters decide Obama is going too far.

Using emotion

Watch for Obama to talk about some the real-world implications of his executive actions.

The president will argue that he is acting to keep families intact and to prevent mothers and fathers from being separated from their children.

And he’ll be doing so in a speech aired on Univision and Telemundo but not on the major networks, a fact that highlights how the immigration moves could further help the Democratic Party politically with Hispanics, who were a key part of the coalition that elected Obama in 2012 and 2008.

If past is precedent, the president is also likely to attempt to flip the script on Republicans’ own versions of emotional appeal. Expect Obama to talk at length about his efforts to protect the border and improve security. Similarly, the president could take on the charge of “amnesty” head on, casting his approach as preferable to the ad hoc system at present.

What will be the GOP response?

The last thing to watch will actually come after Obama’s speech, when Republicans start sending out press releases and appearing on cable news.

Republicans have been trying to manage expectations over to what degree they can curb Obama’s actions.

On Thursday, for example, the House Appropriations Committee said it would be impossible for the panel to defund the agency expected to carry out Obama’s orders.

This was quickly seen by conservatives as an attempt to tamp down GOP demands to defund agencies as part of a government-funding bill the Congress must approve to prevent a shutdown on Dec. 12.

Republicans also want to oppose Obama without completely turning off Hispanic voters ahead of the 2016 presidential race.

So it’s not just Obama who will be taking care with his words on Thursday night. It’s the GOP as well.