5 ways Iran is threatening a nuke deal

The Obama administration’s hopes to finish a nuclear deal with Iran are being jeopardized — by Iran’s actions.

Tehran’s decisions to charge a U.S. journalist with espionage and send a convoy of ships to Yemen to deliver arms to Shiite rebels are clear threats to congressional support for a deal that will be reviewed by Congress.

{mosads}It is possible that some of Iran’s actions — and its bellicose rhetoric toward Washington — is directed at a domestic audience.

A deal in which U.S. and international sanctions are lifted in exchange for Tehran agreeing to curb its nuclear program is not only politically controversial in the United States, but also in Tehran, where the Iranian government has its own domestic politics to worry about.

Some experts say it is necessary for Iran to signal toughness to the outside world to appease hard-liners who might scuttle the nuclear talks.

Nonetheless, the actions risk provoking a negative reaction from Congress.

Supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen 

Iran’s decision to back Houthi rebels in Yemen has increased fears of a wider sectarian war, with regional powers Saudi Arabia and Iran backing different sides.

It is also giving Republicans in Congress ammunition for their arguments that Obama is wrong to trust Tehran.

“It just seems to me what’s happening in Yemen right now is further evidence that you can’t just look at our relationship with Iran through the prism of one program,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry (R-Texas) said Tuesday.  

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.), a vocal critic of the nuclear talks, argued that Iran’s actions show it wants to be a regional power, given its meddling in Syria and Iraq.

“They’ve already succeeded in four countries, and they are succeeding there,” he told The Hill on Monday. 

The U.S. this week sent an aircraft carrier to the waters off Yemen. The administration said the carrier is not there to head off Iranian ships thought to be delivering weapons, but the White House said Tuesday it intended to take an embargo on arms to Yemen seriously.

If things get worse in Yemen, it could doom the nuclear deal.

US journalist charged with spying

Iran on Monday charged The Washington Post’s Tehran bureau chief Jason Rezaian with espionage.

Rezaian was arrested in July and has been held in Iran’s Evin Prison since, despite protests from the Post and the U.S. government.

The journalist is now facing a hard-line judge who, in the past, has been accused of human rights violations. If convicted, Rezaian faces a maximum sentence of 10 to 20 years in prison.

Republicans and Democrats alike have called on the administration to secure Rezaian’s release during the nuclear talks.

On Monday, GOP Sens. Mark Kirk (Ill.) and Marco Rubio (Fla.), in a letter to Secretary of State John Kerry, directly linked Rezaian’s release the talks, arguing there should be no deal if he remains in prison.

Nineteen Republican senators signed the letter. 

Rezaian isn’t the only American in an Iranian jail, either. Tehran is holding three others: Christian pastor Saeed Abedini, former Marine Amir Hekmati and former FBI agent Robert Levinson. 

Buying a Russian missile defense system

Almost immediately after Iran and international negotiators announced a framework nuclear deal, Russia announced it was selling an advanced missile defense system to Iran.

The sale of a mobile S-300 missile system, put on hold in 2010, has triggered fears it could blunt U.S. military action against Iran. 

The S-300 is a mobile surface-to-air missile defense system with powerful radars and high-speed, long-range missiles. It is capable of shooting down aircraft over a large area, according to a Council on Foreign Relations blog by Col. Clint Hinote. 

Pentagon officials said they opposed the sale of the advanced military system to Iran but denied it would affect U.S. military options against Iran. 

Hinote said the missile system could shift the balance of power in the region and spark a race for more capable military systems. 

“While we are not scared of it, we respect the S-300 for what it is: a very mobile, accurate, and lethal missile system,” Hinote wrote Tuesday. 

Tough rhetoric

Immediately after the framework deal was announced on April 2, Iran’s supreme leader accused the U.S. of “lying” about its terms.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also criticized U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. 

Reza Marashi, an Iran research director at the National Iranian American Council, said the supreme leader’s tough talk could be meant to appease Iranian hard-liners. Khamenei has supported the nuclear talks, and he is not supporting legislation that would interfere with them.

“The rhetoric is reprehensible, but the trick is differentiating between rhetoric and reality,” Marashi said. “He’s letting the hard-liners let off some steam.”

Still, the rhetoric will be used by critics of the framework as a reason not to sign off on a final deal.

Israel 

Iran has not put the brakes on criticizing Israel.

At an Army Day parade on Saturday, the crowd chanted “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” 

“If Israel makes a mistake … those in Tel Aviv and Haifa will not sleep at night, not one person,” an Iranian TV announcer said.

Marashi said the anti-Israel rhetoric allows Iranian politicians to play to the powerful but small anti-West minority in the country.

“All politics is local, and [Iranian President Hassan Rouhani] understands that better than anyone,” Marashi said.