The Pentagon is reviewing a batch of what appears to be classified NATO documents on the war in Ukraine, which have been circulating online and shared among Russian sources on social media.
The documents, which date from March or earlier this year, do not appear to reveal any major plans for an expected Ukrainian counter-offensive this spring.
But they do appear to provide information on the training of Ukrainian armed forces, munition expenditures and estimated casualties on both sides.
Sabrina Singh, Pentagon deputy press secretary, did not say whether the documents, which leaked on Twitter and Telegram, were authentic.
“We are aware of the reports of social media posts, and the Department is reviewing the matter,” Singh said in a statement.
The documents show NATO estimating that many more Ukrainian forces have been killed in action than Russian forces, but Ukraine has dismissed the documents.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, called it “a bluff, dust in the eyes.”
“Russia is looking for any way to intercept the information initiative, to try to influence the scenario plans of Ukraine’s counteroffensive,” Podolyak wrote on Telegram. “This has nothing to do with Ukraine’s real plans.”
Russian military bloggers, who are a key component of Moscow’s war machine, have already begun sharing the documents to hundreds of thousands of followers on Telegram.
The New York Times first reported on the leaked documents on Thursday. Analysts told The Times that Russian actors may have altered the documents to proliferate the Kremlin’s disinformation.
The documents suggest NATO’s estimate for Ukrainian forces killed in action is 61,000 to 71,000 compared to just 16,000 to 17,000 Russian forces, despite the fact that Pentagon officials have publicly estimated Moscow’s losses as being as high as 200,000. Western analysts have estimated 100,000 Ukrainian losses.
One document called “Allied & Partner UAF Combat Power Build” lists detailed information about training on equipment and advanced weapons and dates for expected completion.
Another document, dated in March, shows the expenditure of munitions for 155 mm artillery shells and for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, both of which are crucial for the Ukrainians and could provide insight into stocks ahead of the counteroffensive.
The other documents revealed current combat operations in eastern Ukraine, where much of the war is being fought, along with information on where the ground is frozen for vehicle and troop crossings.
Podolyak said the documents were “based on a statistical analysis of supplies, possible operational tactical plans” and a “large volume” of fake information.
“If Russia had really received real scenario blanks, it would hardly have made them public. After all, it is much more profitable to prepare your own counter-traps, while leaving the other side in ignorance of your own knowledge,” the Ukrainian adviser said.
“Instead,” he added, “today’s publication is an unconditional proof of Russia’s exceptionally effective information game.”