Leaked documents include troubling assessment of Taiwan’s ability to ward of Chinese air attack: report

Leaked U.S. military documents include Pentagon assessments that Taiwan may be poorly equipped to hold off a Chinese air attack, The Washington Post reports.

The assessments say Chinese air power would likely overwhelm Taiwanese defenses and that Chinese use of civilian ships for military purposes, among other things, makes it difficult for U.S. spy agencies to see an attack coming, according to the Post.

The assessments, obtained by the outlet, are reportedly among the wide array of sensitive and classified military documents recently leaked online. An Air National Guardsman was arrested this week in connection with the leak and charged with violating the Espionage Act.

The leaks come at a time when Chinese-American relations are at a low point, and as the U.S. has underlined its commitment to Taiwan’s defense in the event of a potential Chinese attack.

Last week, House Speaker Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Los Angeles, becoming the highest ranking American to meet with a Taiwanese leader on U.S. soil. Former Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) visited Taiwan last year.

The Pentagon analysis indicates that the Chinese Air Force would have a strong chance of asserting control in the skies early in a conflict with Taiwan, according to the Post.

The assessments also find Taiwanese military and civilian preparedness inadequate, the outlet reported. They say that the Taiwanese policy to fire two air-defense missiles at each target could be overwhelmed by a “high-volume” Chinese attack, and that civilian air raid siren drills are not effective in preparing for a “real-world event,” per the Post.

But other analysis in the documents predict that a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan would still be difficult, according to the outlet. One assessment reportedly notes that any amphibious invasion of Taiwan would likely be hampered by difficulties in delivering gasoline, meaning the U.S. and Taiwan could thwart it early on. It further noted that China’s best strategy to enable refueling would be to seize Taipei’s port, something its military has not trained how to do, the Post reported.

China has ramped up military exercises near Taiwan in recent months as a show of force. That includes a ballistic missile barrage near the island following Pelosi’s visit.

The assessments said the increased Chinese military activity around Taiwan makes it more difficult for the intelligence community to accurately gauge a potential escalation, according to the Post.

Pentagon documents also criticize Taiwanese military planning, the outlet reported. They said air defense forces cannot see the location of all units at a given time and do not possess radios to securely communicate, and that plans to expand mandatory conscription next year from four months to a year would not significantly improve defense, according to the Post.

Another assessment reportedly outlines Chinese space warfare capabilities. Documents say that China would be likely to attempt to disable U.S. satellites in the case of an invasion, and that it possesses a range of weaponry that could be used to “deter, disrupt, and, if necessary, defeat” U.S. attempts to defend Taiwan, according to the Post.