Fear of Chinese invasion? For Taiwan, it’s just one doomsday scenario 

The U.S. is laser focused on making Taiwan a “porcupine,” giving it the weapons it needs to ensure massive destruction against a much larger Chinese military should Beijing attempt to overtake the island with an invasion.

But an equally menacing threat is that China could impose a military blockade around Taiwan, which requires its own strategy and preparation to ensure the island can hold out against attempts to suffocate the island. 

“You may not be able to swallow a porcupine, but you can starve it,” House lawmakers cited Taiwanese national security officials telling them during a trip to the island in February.

A blockade could inflict heavy costs on Taipei to pressure them to agree to terms of reunification, even without conventional warfare. 

That’s why lawmakers are urging U.S. action to help Taiwan prepare for both a blockade or invasion, warning that efforts to resupply Taiwan with weapons or economic aid would be nearly impossible in the event of such Chinese aggression. 

“The time to arm them and help bolster Taiwan’s critical infrastructure and access to energy sources is now,” the lawmakers, members of the Select Committee on Competition with the Chinese Communist Party, wrote in the report. 

Taiwan has an energy problem. It is heavily reliant on imports to sustain the country, which could become a key vulnerability if China makes moves against the island.

More than 91 percent of its energy – coal, oil and gas – is imported, according to 2021 government statistics. Australia makes up the bulk of its coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) imports. In 2021, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait provided the majority of imported oil (31 percent and 22 percent, respectively), with the U.S. providing about 19 percent of oil imports. 

Taiwan said it ended Russian imports of coal in August 2022 (about 14.6 percent of imports), holding back from renewing the contract in opposition to Moscow’s war. 

And the Ministry of Economic Affairs said in March that it would not renew an LNG contract with Russia, which accounts for 9.7 percent of its gas imports. The ministry at the time said it had about 10 days of LNG reserves.

“It’s of a national security concern that we need to make sure the supply of energy will be sustained even during any possible conflicts with China,” Connie Chang, director-general of the Department of Overall Planning, National Development Council, said to a group of journalists during a briefing in mid-May.

Taiwan is working to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 – with a heavy reliance on solar and wind – to replace energy imports. But that’s unlikely to impact its preparedness for Chinese aggression, which U.S. officials predict could come in the next few years. 

Chen Chern-chyi, the deputy minister for Economic Affairs, said that the ministry is regularly checking inventories of stockpiled life-saving reserves that can sustain the country’s people and its economy in the event of war, or a natural disaster. 

A “super” typhoon threatened the country at the end of May but passed by largely without incident. 

“People here are pretty peaceful and we think the situation is under control… however, we do have a contingency plan, of course — every country should have one. On the economic situation, we have an inventory of life support and living materials and also other essential materials for manufacturing, we are taking inventory regularly.” 

Chen is nonplussed over the threat of war and invasion. “First of all, we don’t see immediate threat of war,” he said in a briefing with international reporters in mid-May.

A more persistent threat from Beijing is its probing of Taiwan’s economic vulnerabilities. Chen said Chinese officials carry out acts of sabotage as political retaliation when they are angry at Taipei. 

“They do not actually impose sanctions — like the Western ideal sanctions — normally you have some [administrative] issues, or technical barrier issues, communication system down, whatever it is, but you know they are sending out a critical message,” he said.

When China does impose sanctions on imports from Taiwan – like pineapple or seafood – it is intended for political harm more than impacting the country’s pocketbook. Taiwanese exports to China grew by more than $300 million between 2017 and 2022 to more than $1.2 billion. 

“They try to target specific group, especially the farmers and the rural areas, that does have some political impact,” Chen said.

To counter this, Taiwan has instituted what it describes as its “New Southbound Policy.” Introduced by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, the policy is focused on deepening economic agreements and trade with neighboring countries in east Asia and the Indo Pacific. 

Chen is upbeat about their successes, in particular that Taiwanese pineapples are now sold in Singapore, Australia and Japan. 

“I think it’s a big success because Japanese are famous for their picky taste,” he said. 

Taiwan is also looking at its communications infrastructure as a key component of any defense against an invasion or blockade. 

It’s a key lesson that Taipei has learned from Russia’s war in Ukraine, how cell phone connectivity and internet connection allowed Kyiv to inspire its population to defend the nation and rally the world’s support. 

“I think we are looking at how the Ukrainians have fortified in the process of resisting the invasion, also the public will to defend as a strong message, also, of deterrence,” Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s Representative to the U.S., said in a panel discussion hosted by the Christian Science Monitor in late May.

“So having resilient but also redundant communication systems that will enable not only communications and connections with the world during conflict, but also in enabling our society to continue to function. I think that is also critical to our broader resilience.” 

Taiwanese officials stress that their actions at building up their military and deepening their diplomatic ties only seek to deter China from launching aggression – they know they can never build up enough to match Beijing militarily, economically or diplomatically.

They push back against China’s criticisms that their actions are a provocation and part of a bigger push for independent recognition, which Beijing views as a red line.  

Chang, of the National Development Council, said that she often fields questions about Taiwanese fears of a Chinese invasion, in particular as Beijing routinely probes Taiwan’s naval and air space with flyovers and ship incursions. 

She tells the story about how she received a concerned text from a friend in the U.S. in the aftermath of Chinese live-fire drills around the island in August 2022, in response to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) trip to Taiwan. 

“I just text back to him, ‘business as usual,’” Chang said. “Certainly we are concerned but we are not afraid, and we do what we need to do to have our life on this island.” 

The writer was in Taiwan as part of a press trip paid for by the Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA).