Ukraine, Israel conflicts test US weapons production capacity

America’s support for wars in Europe and the Middle East is testing U.S. weapons production capacity, with growing calls to ensure a robust stockpile.

The Biden administration says it can support Ukraine’s war against a Russian incursion and Israel’s bid to wipe out Hamas in the Gaza Strip, while still guaranteeing American security. But experts aren’t so sure.  

“Any kind of a blanket statement like ‘we can handle this, we got it’ is too simplistic,” said Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow specializing in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. “I don’t think the Pentagon or the administration are wrong, but if they just make it sound like this is sort of a no-brainer, or a gimme, that’s completely untrue.”

President Biden, in an impassioned prime-time address last week, vowed to send more weapons to both Ukraine and Israel, asking Congress to approve a $105 billion emergency package mostly for military aid. Ukraine would receive about $61 billion in lethal assistance, while Israel, a far better militarily equipped country, would receive about $14 billion for air and missile defenses.

The United States has already rushed precision-guided munitions, small-diameter bombs, artillery ammunition, Iron Dome systems, interceptors and other equipment to Israel following Hamas’s massive surprise attack on the country Oct. 7. Defense officials have since promised there will be a “steady flow of weapons continuing to flow into Israel.”

That comes on top of sending billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to Ukraine since March 2022 to help Kyiv’s forces push Russian troops from occupied territory, a conflict that has burned through ammunition and other weaponry at the fastest rate since World War II. 

The high demand for weapons has laid bare the limitations the United States has in replenishing its own stockpiles, with manufacturers struggling to keep up with requests. For instance, the sudden onset of the Hamas-Israel conflict prompted the Defense Department to send tens of thousands of 155-millimeter artillery shells meant for Ukraine to Israel instead.  

Future shipments to Jerusalem could include more of the same types of artillery and bombs Ukraine has increasingly relied on to beat back a Russian incursion, including Stinger missiles.  

The United States has given Ukraine more than 2,000 of the lightweight and shoulder-launched Stingers, which could also be ideal for urban combat in the Gaza Strip. But inventories of the weapon are limited, as the U.S. had sought to phase out systems.  

“The reality is that we really don’t have the force, the munitions, or the defense industrial base” to keep up with security interests in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, said Matthew Kroenig, director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. “That’s a problem.” 

He said the issue stems from a shrunken U.S. industrial base that has been in decline since the end of the Cold War, when the United States was stockpiling munitions in anticipation of any potential war with the Soviet Union. 

After the Cold War ended, Washington began to focus more on efficiency rather than capacity with weapons output, said Kroenig, who previously worked at the Pentagon and in the intelligence community during the Bush, Obama and Trump administrations.   

That focus has placed the United States in a precarious position in defending its security interests, especially when considering China’s repeated threats to bring Taiwan under its control.  

“With the war in Ukraine, people were saying, ‘Well, we need to be focused on China. We can’t give these munitions to Ukraine.’ Layer on top of that we’re now providing aid to Israel, I think it is going to be a real challenge,” Kroenig said of equipping all conflicts. “If we can’t get the supplemental bills through, we will run out of ammunition, the Ukrainians will run out of ammunition, and then God forbid if China were to take advantage of the situation, I think we’re in a bad place.” 

Though Ukraine and Israel are fighting different kinds of wars — with Kyiv’s troops struggling through a grinding ground counteroffensive and artillery campaign, and Israel poised to launch a ground offensive within a dense cityscape — some capabilities and needs may overlap. 

“At any given moment, you may wind up with a potential for a shortage of one type of capability or another,” O’Hanlon said.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon again sought to assure that it has what it needs to be able to support both countries in their conflicts while keeping the homeland safe.

“We are confident that we can meet both Israel’s needs and Ukraine’s needs going forward,” press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters. “At the same time, ensure that our military readiness stays at the threshold that it needs to. We will not sacrifice our own military readiness when it comes to defending the nation.”

Ryder also said Defense officials are “working closely with industry not only in the United States, but working with our allies and partners and their defense industrial base to look at ramping up production of 155” shells. 

Also driving concerns is potential for extended conflicts. Ukraine will soon enter its second year of war with Russia. Israel’s expected ground offensive in Gaza could last for months, due to the difficult nature of urban warfare and expected booby traps that Hamas has had plenty of time to lay. Jerusalem could also end up in a two-front war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah, complicating matters further. 

“You could imagine further stresses on an industrial base that is already certainly stressed,” O’Hanlon said.

He did note a silver lining, however, with the conflicts opening eyes to a need to ramp up artillery production and a push for longer-term defense contracts to keep lines running consistently.

“This is not leading to either a warfighting crisis or to deterrence failure, at least not yet,” O’Hanlon said. “But it’s an ongoing set of challenges that requires attention … to try to strengthen the industrial base so that if we need to ramp up even further, in the event of a two front war in Israel, in the event of prolonged Ukraine conflict, in the event, heaven forbid, of a war in East Asia, that we have greater capability than we’ve had up until now.”