US says Russia has suffered 315K casualties in Ukraine

Russia has suffered more than 300,000 casualties in the war in Ukraine, according to the latest U.S. estimate, and has also lost 20 medium-to-large ships in the Black Sea.

A senior U.S. defense official said 315,000 Russian soldiers have died or been wounded in the fighting so far. In addition to the naval ship losses, Russia has lost one tanker in the war.

And Russia is also spending massive amounts of money on the war, the official said, with around $211 billion spent so far. The war has cost Russia’s economy $1.3 trillion in anticipated economic growth through 2026, the official added.

They said it was important “to focus on these larger questions of costs and attrition” in the ongoing war.

“Russia has suffered significant costs in that respect,” they added.

Russia has struggled to achieve its objectives in the war but still holds some 18 percent of Ukrainian territory in the eastern region of the country. While Russia repelled a 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive, its own forces have only made incremental gains on the battlefield.

Moscow’s strategy has largely been to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses with mass, but that strategy has led to heavy losses, especially around cities like Bakhmut, which saw some of the heaviest fighting last year.

Ukraine has also suffered heavy losses in the war, but Kyiv keeps its casualty numbers a closely guarded secret.

Still, Ukraine continues to thwart Russian forces despite losing the advantage in size, including on the Black Sea, where Kyiv does not have an official navy. Despite that, Ukraine last year managed to force the Russian Black Sea fleet out of its headquarters in Crimea’s Sevastopol through heavy drone strikes on ships and buildings on the peninsula and surrounding waters.

Ukraine has continued those attacks this year, sinking a Russian landing ship in the Black Sea this week.

The U.S. official said it was “important to look at the story of the Black Sea.”

“The story of the Black Sea is a story of Ukraine leveraging asymmetric approaches to defeat Russia’s advantage in its naval warships,” they said. “And it’s a story of Ukraine being able to protect its coastline through novel coastal defense capabilities, and enable grain shipments and other shipments like iron ore to keep the Ukrainian economy running.”

But Ukraine faces immense challenges in the months ahead, as Russia’s defense economy is whirring up to meet demand and Kyiv faces uncertainty that the U.S. will maintain support for the war.

Congress is still debating another package for Ukraine, and the White House warned this week that Russian forces are closing in on a key town in eastern Ukraine, Avdiivka, which Moscow has been assaulting heavily for months.

The senior defense official said that Ukrainian troops are running out of ammunition and resources across the entire front.

“We see this as something that could be the harbinger of what is to come if we do not get this supplemental funding,” they said. “Because without supplemental funding, not only can we not resupply those forces that are bravely trying to defend Avdiivka, we also will find many other locations along the forward line of troops that will be running low on supplies on critical ammunition.”

Updated: 2:24 p.m.