Overnight Defense & National Security — Ukraine’s warning sets off invasion rumors

by Ellen Mitchell - 02/14/22 7:46 PM ET

It’s Monday, welcome to Overnight Defense & National Security, your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. Subscribe here: digital-staging.thehill.com/newsletter-signup.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has declared that Wednesday will be a day of unity, as he addressed reports that a Russian invasion of his country could begin that day.

The warning, which came the same day the U.S. announced it will shutter its embassy in Kyiv, is the latest in a tense situation between the West and Russia that has appeared to reach a fever pitch. More on what went down today plus the Pentagon chief’s upcoming trip to Europe and a potential new tactic to get weapons to Ukraine.

For The Hill, I’m Ellen Mitchell. Write me with tips at emitchell@digital-staging.thehill.com.

Let’s get to it.

Ukraine warns of invasion within the week

A Russian fighter prepares to take off from an airfield in Russia and fly to Belarus to attend a joint military drills.

Addressing his nation via Facebook, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote that a decree declaring a day of unity had already been signed for Wednesday ahead of a possible Russian invasion.

“We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack,” he said, according to a Facebook translation of his comments.

Ukrainian officials told reporters in Kyiv that Zelensky was not being literal about an attack on Wednesday — though that day has circulated in news reports as a possible opening day of a Russian campaign on Ukraine.

‘Entirely possible’: The Associated Press, citing intelligence obtained by the U.S., reported that Russia was eyeing Wednesday as the target date for an attack.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters on Monday “we still don’t believe that some final decision has been made.”Asked about Zelensky’s statement and the mention of Feb. 16, Kirby said “I’m not going to talk about specific intelligence assessments, I think you can understand that. We have said for a while now that military action could happen any day.”

He later said, “I won’t get into a specific date, I don’t think that would be smart. I would just tell you that it is entirely possible that he could move with little to no warning.”

Diplomacy faltering: Russia has amassed more than 130,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. The troop buildup had raised concerns among the U.S. and NATO allies that Russia is planning a military incursion, but Moscow has continually denied having any such plans.

Officials from Ukraine, Russia and NATO nations have engaged in diplomatic discussions for weeks with hopes of easing the tensions in the region, but the conversations did not bear any breakthroughs.

Read the full story here.

US embassy in Kyiv closing

As Ukraine offered its stark warning, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on Monday that the U.S. is shuttering its embassy in Kyiv.

“We are in the process of temporarily relocating our Embassy operations in Ukraine from our Embassy in Kyiv to Lviv due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces,” Blinken said in a statement, stressing that the Biden administration remains engaged with the Ukrainian government and is continuing “intensive diplomatic efforts to deescalate the crisis.”

“These prudent precautions in no way undermine our support for or our commitment to Ukraine. Our commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering,” Blinken continued.

Standing guard: State Department spokesperson Ned Price on Monday said that the embassy compound is being guarded by the Ukrainian National Guard Police and that it is the intention of the U.S. to return to the embassy “as soon as it is safe for us to do so.”

The State Department on Saturday announced it was drawing down its staff in Kyiv and ending consular services for Americans, transferring those operations to the U.S. mission in the Ukrainian city of Lyiv, which sits closer to the border with Poland.

The Biden administration last week urged Americans still in Ukraine to leave the country within 48 to 72 hours, raising alarm that Russia could launch an attack or invade Ukraine at any time.

Read more details here.

PENTAGON MULLS NEW WAY TO ARM UKRAINIANS

The Pentagon is looking to get military aid to Ukrainians via ground delivery to help Kyiv with a resistance effort from within the country should Russia invade, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told House members in a private call Monday.

Sullivan said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wants the option of land routes over air delivery to provide Ukrainians with the lethal aid if Russia launches an attack, a House source confirmed to The Hill.

A rush to arm: The Biden administration, which has approved about $650 million of military equipment to Kyiv in the past year, has been under immense pressure to rush security assistance to Ukraine as Russia has amassed more than 130,000 of its troops near its border.

More recently, the administration approved a $200 million package to Ukraine, which included “Javelin anti-tank missiles, other anti-armor systems, grenade launchers, munitions, and non-lethal equipment essential to Ukraine’s front line defenders,” the Pentagon said in a statement as the equipment was being delivered last month.

The U.S. has also allowed the Baltic states, including Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, to provide Kyiv with American-made anti-armor and anti-aircraft missiles.

Read the full story here.

Former Marine fighting to end veteran suicide

Marine veteran Cole Lyle found himself breaking down as he left the service in 2014.

His marriage was deteriorating, he wasn’t in school and he didn’t have a job. And he had lost his support system: the men and women with whom he served.

“It really was just the lowest point in my life, and I was two pounds of trigger pull away from being one of the statistics — a veteran’s suicide statistic — if it had not been for another Marine that intervened,” Lyle told The Hill in a recent interview.

A new mission: Eight years later, he’s the executive director of Mission Roll Call, a nonprofit raising awareness on issues affecting veterans, and particularly veterans’ suicide.

“The ultimate goal of Mission Roll Call is to reduce the number of veterans that are making that irreversible decision,” he said.

Stark numbers: Recent data on suicide among veterans shows progress but still reflects the urgency of the problem.

According to a report from the Department of Veterans Affairs released in September, 6,261 former service members died by suicide in 2019, which is 399 fewer than the year prior and an unprecedented drop compared to the past 20 years.

But that doesn’t change the fact that veterans are far more likely to die by suicide than non-veterans. That same report found that the suicide rate among veterans in 2019 was 31.6 per 100,000, nearly

Read the full story here.

ON TAP TOMORROW

The International Institute for Strategic Studies will hold a virtual launch of its 2022 edition of “The Military Balance” at 5:30 a.m.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will speak to media at NATO headquarters ahead of Wednesday and Thursday meeting of the NATO defense ministers in Brussels at 7 a.m.
U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg will speak at the Arab Center virtual conference, “The Conflict in Yemen: Current Situation and Future Prospects,” at 8 a.m.
The Senate Armed Services Committee will hold a hearing on the nominations of Robert Storch to be DOD Inspector General; Dr. Lester Martinez-Lopez to be assistant secretary of defense for health affairs; and Christopher Lowman to be assistant secretary of defense for sustainment, at 9:30 a.m.
The Wilson Center will host a virtual discussion on “War in Yemen: Implications for Regional and U.S. Security,” with former State Department Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook at 10 a.m.
The Center for European Policy Analysis will hold a discussion on “Responding to Russian Cyber Operations,” at 10 a.m.
The United States Institute of Peace, 10:30 a.m.: “U.S. Engagement with Afghanistan After Six Months of Taliban Rule,” 10:30 a.m.
The Association of the U.S. Army will hold a webinar on “Warrant Officer Talent Management,” at 12 p.m.
The Center for a New American Security will hold a virtual discussion “Strategic Readiness: Meeting the Challenges of Today and Tomorrow,” with Shawn Skelly, assistant Defense secretary for readiness, at 1 p.m.
The Wilson Center will host a virtual discussion on “Russia and China on the Brink,” with former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy at 2 p.m.
Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall will speak at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies at 2 p.m.