Overnight Defense & National Security — Russia-Ukraine conflict reaches fever pitch

by Jordan Williams - 02/17/22 5:44 PM ET

It’s Thursday, welcome to Overnight Defense & National Security, your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. Subscribe here: digital-staging.thehill.com/newsletter-signup.

Tensions in the Russian-Ukraine conflict reached a fever pitch as fallout over Moscow’s announcement of drawing down troops continues.

We’ll break down everything that transpired, plus the Biden administration weighing Temporary Protected Status for Afghan refugees and Republicans threatening to blow up a potential Iran nuclear deal.

For The Hill, I’m Jordan Williams. Send tips to jwilliams@digital-staging.thehill.com.

Let’s get to it.

Tensions flare in Russia-Ukraine conflict

People gather for a rally in support of Ukraine sovereignty while Russia's military presence at the border and in the region continues as the U.N. Security Council holds a meeting on the tensions between Ukraine and Russia outside of the U.N. on Feb. 17.

Tensions between Russia, Ukraine and the west reached a fever pitch on Thursday as the west continues to dispute Moscow’s claims that it is drawing down some of its troops from Ukraine’s border.

Earlier on Thursday, Ukraine and Russian-backed rebel forces accused each other of firing across a cease-fire line. Ukraine says the rebels shelled the village of Stanytsa Lugansk in the Luhansk region, hitting a kindergarten building.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration continued to sound the alarm that Russia could invade Ukraine at any day, and decried Moscow’s expulsion of a top U.S. diplomat as an escalatory step.

Russia lashes out at US, NATO: Russia on Thursday accused the U.S. and NATO of making “unfounded accusations” after Western officials said Moscow has made no effort to withdraw its forces from near the Ukrainian border, as promised earlier this week.

The Kremlin claimed it had a clear timetable for units to return to their permanent bases after it completes military exercises and that such a wind down takes time, spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters, as reported by Reuters.

“It’s clear the grouping for the [military] exercises was built up over many weeks, and it is of course impossible to withdraw it in a single day. They can’t just take off and fly away . . . it takes time,” Peskov said. “As always unfounded accusations.”

Shelling raises questions: The Luhansk People’s Republic, which is a rebel region, said that Ukraine used mortars, grenade launchers and a machine gun in four different incidents. The Ukrainian military said that the rebels shelled Stanytsa Lugansk.

Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.S., told CNN that the incident was a “brutal violation of the cease-fire agreement.”

The incident raised questions as to whether it could be the pretext to a Russian invasion of Ukraine—something that the U.S. has said Russia is preparing as an excuse to justify the former Soviet state.

Speaking to reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said reports of the shelling were “certainly troubling.”

“We’re still gathering the details. But you know, we’ve said for some time that the Russians might do something like this in order to justify a military conflict, so we’ll be watching this very closely,” he said.

BIDEN EXPECTS INVASION

President Biden said he believes Russia will invade “within the next several days,” given that Russia has added more troops to the border.

He said the threat of a Russian invasion is “very high.”

“Because they have not moved any of their troops out, they’ve moved more troops in, No. 1. No. 2, we have reason to believe that they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in,” the president added. “Every indication we have is they are prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine.”

Austin and Blinken speak out: In a press conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Austin said Moscow has added troops along the border, flown in more combat and support aircraft, sharpened readiness in the Black Sea and stocked up on blood supplies.

“You know, I was a soldier myself not that long ago. And I know firsthand that you don’t do these sorts of things for no reason,” Austin said. “And you certainly don’t do them if you’re getting ready to pack up and go home.”

Later on Thursday, in a last-minute speech to the U.N. Security Council, Secretary of State Antony Blinken laid out assessments of how the U.S. thinks Russia could manufacture crisis and justify invading Ukraine.

“Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack,” Blinken said, adding the pretext could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine or an “outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian government.”

He added that Moscow’s attack plans include that “Russian missiles and bombs will drop across Ukraine, communications will be jammed, cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions” and a ground invasion will “advance on key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans.”

These plans include targeting the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, Blinken said, a city of 2.8 million people. He also said Russia “will target specific groups of Ukrainians.”

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RUSSIA KICKS OUT TOP US DIPLOMAT

The State Department confirmed on Thursday that Russia expelled the No. 2 diplomat at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, Deputy Chief of Mission Bart Gorman, and called the action “unprovoked.”

Gorman departed from his position last week, though news of his expulsion first broke on Thursday by Russian state media. Moscow hadn’t offered a reason as to why Gorman was expelled.

“We consider this an escalatory step and are considering our response,” a State Department spokesperson told The Hill.

“We call on Russia to end its baseless expulsions of U.S. diplomats and staff and to work productively to rebuild our missions,” the spokesperson said. “Now more than ever, it is critical that our countries have the necessary diplomatic personnel in place to facilitate communication between our governments.”

Read more here.

Check out our coverage of the Russia-Ukraine conflict:

Biden weighs Temporary Protected Status

The Biden administration is considering offering Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to Afghans already in the United States, three sources familiar with the matter told The Hill, as the clock winds down on how to find a way for thousands to legally remain in the country.

The move comes as advocates are pushing the administration to offer broader protections and a pathway to citizenship to those who arrived during the chaotic evacuation.

While more than 70,000 Afghans arrived in the U.S. during the evacuation, they remain in a tenuous immigration status, with some given as little as one year to formalize their paperwork to remain in America.

What TPS would do: A TPS designation would only help those already present in the United States — a group that includes a few thousand Afghans who came to the U.S. prior to the evacuation and were unable to return, as well as offering a short-term solution for those evacuated who are running out of time to secure their status.

But it does not offer a pathway to citizenship and is instead often reissued in six-, 12- or 18-month increments, leaving recipients on shaky ground, unsure if the White House will renew the designation.

An administration official, however, told The Hill that TPS may be designed to apply only to those in the U.S. prior to the evacuation and is just one of several options being considered but that no final determination has been made.

No decision has been made: The Department of Homeland Security, which evaluates countries for TPS, stressed no determination has yet been made.

“At this time, there is no decision to designate Afghanistan for Temporary Protected Status to benefit Afghans currently residing in the United States. The Biden Administration supports legislation to provide permanent legal status to Afghans through the Afghan Adjustment Act and we urge Congress to act swiftly,” a spokesperson told The Hill.

Read the full story here.

Republicans threaten to stop Iran nuke deal

More than 160 House Republicans are threatening to scuttle or rip up a potential nuclear deal with Iran, warning President Biden that any agreement struck without congressional approval will be opposed by members of the caucus — and overturned if Republicans retake power.

The letter, signed by a total of 165 GOP lawmakers, comes more than two weeks after the Biden administration warned that the U.S. and Iran only have “a handful of weeks left to get a deal” on a nuclear agreement.

A group of Senate Republicans sent a similar letter to Biden last week, suggesting that the chamber could block an attempt to return to the JCPOA.

Don’t skip Congress: In their letter, members of the House GOP referenced reports that Iran is asking for a “guarantee” that the U.S. will never reimpose sanctions as long as the Middle East nation agrees to comply with an agreement regarding its nuclear program.

They said such a deal would be “non-binding,” and suggested it would experience the same outcome as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — the nuclear deal negotiated under the Obama administration in 2015 then abandoned by former President Trump in 2018.

“If you forge an agreement with the Supreme Leader of Iran without formal Congressional approval, it will be temporary and non-binding and will meet the same fate as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),” the lawmakers wrote in the letter, first reported by Axios.

The Republicans said they will oppose a deal to lift sanctions if Iran has not “fully dismantled their enrichment and reprocessing-related infrastructure capabilities,” among other terms — including that all Americans hostages are released and the country’s sponsorship of terrorism is ended.

A bit of backstory: The debate over where authority lies in the potential renewal of an Iran nuclear deal hinges on the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), passed in May 2015 giving Congress the power to review agreements reached in “P5+1” talks with Iran and other world powers.

Supporters of Biden’s push to return to the JCPOA argue the mandate for congressional review within the INARA does not apply since the administration is returning to the original agreement, which already went through a rigorous congressional review.

If the two nations were to re-enter the 2015 deal, the broad strokes would be the U.S. lifting sanctions on Iran, and the Middle East nation halting its nuclear program and getting rid of excess nuclear material and infrastructure.

State Department pushes return to JCPOA compliance: “A return to mutual compliance is in the United States’ national security interests regardless of who is in office now or in the future on either side,” a State Department spokesperson told The Hill.

The spokesperson also said Biden “believes that a bipartisan approach to Iran is the strongest way to safeguard U.S. interests for the long-term,” adding that the administration is “committed to ensuring the requirements of INARA are satisfied.”

Biden administration officials have reached out to members of Congress and their staffs to discuss the administration’s approach to Iran, according to the spokesperson.

Read the full story here.

Sexual assaults at military academies rise

Reports of sexual assaults at U.S. military academies have significantly increased over the past academic year, according to a Department of Defense report released Thursday.

The Annual Report on Sexual Harassment and Violence at the Military Service Academies (MSA), Academic Program Year (APY) 2020 – 2021, which contains numbers of reported instances of sexual harassment and sexual assault, found that figures increased during the 2020-2021 school year as students returned to in person settings.

Into the numbers: Cadets and midshipmen reported 131 assaults in 2020-2021, increasing from 88 in 2019-2020 and 122 in 2018-2019.

The most assaults (52) were reported by cadets at the Air Force Academy, followed by West Point (46) and the U.S. Naval Academy (33).

While the numbers of reported assaults rose in comparison to the previous pandemic year, the 2020-21 figures were also higher than years before the pandemic.

Read the full story here.

ON TAP TOMORROW

Vice President Harris heads to the Munich Security Conference, which is scheduled to begin tomorrow
The Center for Strategic and International Studies will host the “2022 U.S.-Japan Security Seminar” at 8 a.m.
The Atlantic Council will host a discussion on “Future Foreign Policy: Where now for US-Russia relations?” at 9 a.m.
The Hudson Institute will host “A Conversation with Congressman Mike Turner on Ukraine” at 10 a.m.
The Aspen Institute will host “Russian Aggression Toward Ukraine: Cyber Threats” at 2 p.m.

WHAT WE’RE READING

Last US troops arrive in Poland
Senators urge Biden to ‘impose significant costs’ if Russia invades Ukraine
UK, Poland, and Ukraine agree on accord to combat Russian aggression
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