Climate votes promise to echo on stump

The Senate is heading for votes this week on Environmental Protection Agency rules regarding climate change that are certain to reverberate on the campaign trail in 2012.

The chamber could vote on as many as three climate-related amendments to small-business legislation: a GOP plan that strips EPA’s power to regulate greenhouse gases and a pair of Democratic amendments to delay the rules or limit their reach.

{mosads}The GOP plan is highly unlikely to gain the 60 votes needed for passage. But it could nonetheless pay off for Republicans and industry groups by forcing vulnerable Democrats into a tricky spot. 

The plans for possible amendment votes were fluid at press time.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), a member of the Democratic leadership team, emerged from a meeting in Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) office Monday with word that discussions on the small business bill are ongoing.

“There are a number of amendments and they are still working on a lot of the negotiations, so I don’t think it is definitely decided at this point,” she said when asked about the climate amendment.

Americans for Prosperity — a conservative group that spent heavily in House contests last year — signaled Monday that it is making the climate votes part of its advocacy.

The group sent a memo to senators urging their support for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) amendment, which would nullify EPA’s authority, and bashing the Democratic amendments that could provide cover to vulnerable members of that party. 

McConnell’s plan is identical to Sen. James Inhofe’s (R-Okla.) bill to block EPA rules, which has 43 co-sponsors, including one Democrat thus far: Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.).

Dave Levinthal, a spokesman for the Center for Responsive Politics, predicted the votes will result in outside political spending by advocacy groups.

“Any sort of red-meat vote like this — that has the ability to rile people up, to galvanize a base, to make political activists more active — could definitely be something targeted by the type of outside group that was particularly active in 2010,” he said.

“This is the time when they are going to be filling their 2012 dockets with various votes and the positions that people take on them for use in ads or other communications,” Levinthal said, noting this isn’t unique to conservative groups.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told The Hill he believes that vulnerable Democrats will pay for it in the 2012 elections if they do not support the GOP plan to strip EPA’s authority. 

Cornyn called the issue a “metaphor” for intrusive federal policies that inhibit jobs, but declined to say directly how he might use it politically in the 2012 cycle. “I don’t think it has anything to do with me. I think it has a life of its own,” he said.

But Stephen Brown, a top lobbyist for the refining company Tesoro Corp., predicts that consideration has already begun about how the votes will be used for attack ads.

“I imagine that is being actively discussed at the NRSC and among various independent third-party activist groups. Conversely, I also would not be surprised to see the environmental NGOs [non-governmental organizations] throw some money down attacking certain Republican senators for supporting McConnell-Inhofe,” said Brown, the vice president and counsel for federal governmental affairs.

A Senate Republican aide predicts vulnerable Democrats could face a backlash from their constituents if they vote against a plan to kill EPA’s power to regulate greenhouse gases.

The aide specifically pointed to Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who faces a tough reelection bid in 2012. “I would guess that a ‘no’ vote would be a vulnerability back at home for him, especially among the agriculture and farming community,” the aide said.

Tester is one of several in-

cycle Democrats — largely from conservative or manufacturing-heavy states — facing difficult votes on climate change, along with senators such as Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) and Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.). 

But some Republicans face tough votes, too. Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) — who shirked questions about the climate measures before last week’s recess — faces reelection in typically blue Massachusetts, while centrist Republican Olympia Snowe (Maine) faces a Tea Party primary battle from the right.

Brown declined to tip his hand Monday, telling The Hill that he’s “not going to get into hypotheticals.”

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), a typically liberal vote, has repeatedly expressed concerns about EPA climate rules. He recently said he won’t vote for the plan to kill EPA’s rules, but earlier in March left the door open to voting for Sen. Jay Rockefeller’s (D-W.Va.) amendment that would delay regulation of sources like power plants and refineries for two years.

The other Democratic amendment looming is Sen. Max Baucus’s (D-Mont.) plan. It aims to codify EPA plans to shield smaller polluters from climate rules and exempt agriculture. 

The Democratic amendments face major hurdles. They have drawn attacks from both industry and environmentalists. The American Farm Bureau Federation says farmers will still get hit with higher energy costs under the Baucus plan. 

The Natural Resources Defense Council has come out against provisions that would limit EPA’s reach in other respects, including the ability to consider emissions that stem from land-use changes associated with bio-energy.

The climate votes are attracting attention from industry groups, such as the National Association of Manufacturers, that are pushing vulnerable lawmakers to back the McConnell-Inhofe plan.

But environmental groups are racing to show that protecting EPA climate rules — a top priority for green groups in the wake of last year’s collapse of climate legislation — is a good vote for Democrats.

The League of Conservation Voters released a poll Monday showing that over 60 percent of voters in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania support EPA setting carbon pollution standards for power plants and other industrial facilities.

Franz Matzner, climate legislative director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said vulnerable Democrats who vote against proposals to limit EPA’s authority should be proud of their votes.

“Suggesting that you’re going to take something like that, pervert it and use it as a political attack — I think anybody who is looking at this the right way would say, ‘Go ahead, I’m protecting public health,’ ” Matzner said.

Regardless of this week’s outcome, Inhofe has vowed to try to graft the EPA-blocking measure to legislation whenever there’s an opportunity.

Andrew Restuccia contributed.