Electric cars charging ahead

The electric car movement is finally moving into the fast lane.

With a new fleet of cheaper and longer-range electric vehicles (EV) on the horizon, experts say automakers may soon deliver on their long-delayed promise to bring electric cars to the masses.

{mosads}“This is basically the second coming of the EV market, particularly in the U.S.,” said Roland Hwang, director of the energy and transportation program at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “It’s not just a Tesla thing anymore, and, by gosh, the electric vehicle market is no longer just a California thing.”

But whether the electric car is poised for a breakthrough remains to be seen — the industry has had false starts before.

Momentum around electric vehicles first began to build in the 1990s, largely driven by California’s move to require that auto companies produce a certain percentage of zero-emission vehicles for sale in the state.

The requirement spurred the production of battery electric vehicles that do not require gasoline or diesel. It also led to the creation of more hybrids and plug-in hybrids that have both an electric motor and a conventional gasoline or diesel engine.

But with limited options for consumers, and gas prices falling in the 1990s and early 2000s, the electric vehicle movement stalled.

It wasn’t until after the recession in the late 2000s that interest in more fuel-efficient vehicles began to pick up again, accompanied by concerns about energy security and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) set a goal of putting 1 million zero-emission vehicles and near-zero-emission vehicles on the state’s roads by 2023, while President Obama in 2011 called for 1 million plug-in electric vehicles on the roads.

California-based electric automaker Tesla Motors began producing the Roadster in 2008, which was the first highway-capable, all-electric vehicle for mass sale in the U.S. Other major automakers quickly followed suit.

The global electric vehicle market — which also includes hybrids and plug-in hybrids — is expected to grow from 2.6 million vehicle sales in 2015 to more than 6 million in 2024, according to Navigant Research.

“The expected changes during the next five years will be even more impactful to the global automotive and energy industries,” said Scott Shepard, a research analyst with Navigant.

Around 310,000 battery electric vehicles were sold in 2015, up from 190,000 in 2014. Shepard said hybrid sales were sluggish last year because of the dip in oil prices and also because of increased competition from plug-ins.

Experts emphasize that the market fluctuates and say gas prices are likely to go back up again.

Still, the large-scale commercialization of electric cars faces major hurdles. For one thing, consumers are typically confronted with steeper prices. The base price for the Tesla Model S, introduced in 2012, is $70,000.

“You pay more up front, but you save money over the lifespan of the vehicle,” Hwang said. “The challenge is that people tend to buy things on a first-cost basis.”

Many consumers also have “range anxiety” about how far an electric car can travel. More than a third of consumers surveyed by Navigant Research said the primary drawback to owning a plug-in electric car is charging-related hassles.

The 2009 economic stimulus package passed by Congress provided funding for the construction of 20,000 electric charging stations. Since then, utility companies, manufacturers and some private companies have begun to construct charging infrastructure on their own.

But it can be difficult to justify building more stations before more cars are on the road. 

Currently, there are more than 12,000 electric stations and 32,000 charging outlets in the United States, not including private stations, according to the Department of Energy.

“It’s kind of a chicken or an egg situation,” Hwang said. “You don’t really have a business model for charging infrastructure until there’s enough vehicles out there.”

Automakers are working to overcome the lingering doubts about electric automobiles. Industry experts emphasize that the average miles traveled per day are significantly lower than the car’s range and say the vehicles spend a majority of their time parked at home, where they can be easily charged.

“I think people believe that an electric car isn’t a real car,” said Pam Fletcher, General Motors’s executive chief engineer for electrified vehicles. “We’ve honed our recipe for what the customers like: certainly range and price, but also the fun-to-drive aspect. When you step on the accelerator, you get instantaneous torque. I call it the kick in the pants.”

Due to recent advances in battery technology — the single biggest factor in how much the cars cost and how far they run — the automakers might not have to work as hard to win new converts.

Tesla’s Model 3, unveiled on March 31, will start at $35,000 and have a range of  more than 200 miles. The company hopes to have it on the market by 2017.

The Chevrolet Bolt EV, which will go into production at the end of 2016, is also estimated to have a 200-mile range and cost around $30,000, after tax credits are factored in.

Ford Motor Co. is investing $4.5 billion in electric vehicle research and development and plans to add 13 new hybrid, plug-in hybrid and fully electric models to its portfolio by 2020.

“There’s a lot of commitment, both on the engineering side, but also on the education side as well,” said Darin Gesse, product manager of the Chevrolet Volt and Bolt EV. “It’s a community effort.”

Also fueling momentum are federal and state tax credits, subsidies and other incentives to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles. Plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles can qualify for a federal tax credit of up to $7,500.

But the incentives won’t last forever. The full tax credit is only available to the first 200,000 qualifying cars sold per automaker based on battery pack size, and some predict companies like Tesla might soon be hitting that cap.

With the tax credits limited, automakers will likely have to bring down the price of the electric cars and ensure the availability of charging stations before the vehicles are widely adopted. 

Electric cars could also face opposition from the oil and gas industry, which has long been accused of plotting to preserve the dominance of petroleum-based transportation.

But proponents of electric automobiles aren’t backing down from the fight. In fact, some seem to be relishing it.

“The more they oppose it, the more it’s clear they see this as a threat,” Hwang said. “Five years ago, 10 years ago, maybe even three years ago, when we talked to these guys, they didn’t care. Now they’re starting to wake up.”