Climate change more than doubled the odds of so-called fire weather, the meteorological conditions that fuel the spread of wildfires, in eastern Canada, according to research published by World Weather Attribution on Tuesday.
Researchers analyzed the conditions specifically in parts of Quebec that saw some of the worst fires this year, using the Fire Weather Index, a metric that combines factors including humidity, precipitation, temperatures and wind speed. They determined that climate change made the peak fire weather the region experienced in 2023 at least twice as likely.
Researchers further determined that climate change made fire season in Quebec from May through July about 50 percent more intense, as well as making similarly severe seasons seven times more likely. This year also saw an atypically low level of precipitation, along with the effects of higher temperatures and lower humidity that were compounded by anthropogenic warming.
“The consequences from the wildfires reached far beyond the burned areas with displaced impacts due to air pollution threatening health, mobility, and economic activities of people across North America,” researchers wrote. “As fire weather risks increase, changes in fire management strategies and increased resources will be required to meet the increased challenges.”
Under modern climate conditions, researchers wrote, fire weather of the kind seen over the past season is projected every 20 to 25 years, or with 4 to 5 percent probability in any given year. Both likelihood and intensity will increase in a scenario where the world misses the international goal of keeping warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
This past Canadian fire season has killed at least 17 people, while haze from the fires blanketed much of the eastern U.S. in June. Yellowknife, the capital of Canada’s Northwest Territories, evacuated some 20,000 people due to the ongoing threat from fires earlier this month. According to Canada’s Interagency Forest Fire Center, there are currently 1,031 active fires and 5,858 fires in 2023 to date, which have burned the equivalent of about 37.8 million acres this year.