Western water managers prepare for dueling threats of flood and drought amid uncertain weather outlook

Western water managers are preparing for an upcoming season of potential weather extremes, but they remain uncertain as to which shape these events will take.

“We are really in a state of preparing for extremes in the 2025 water year. It’s really actually been a decade of extremes,” said Karla Nemeth, director of the California Department of Water Resources, at a Thursday briefing.

Across the U.S. West, the water year occurs from Oct. 1 through Sept. 30. Ahead of the new water year, managers take winter weather forecasts into account as they plan their water storage and conservation strategies for upcoming months.

What exactly is in store for this winter, however, remains unclear, according to California water officials, who stressed the state must be ready for the dueling threats of drought and floods.

The ongoing uncertainty follows both record hot summer temperatures and the threat of an incoming La Niña weather pattern, which tends to bring hotter and drier conditions to California.

At the moment, the Golden State is seeing a forecast of above-average temperatures into October, with no rain in current projections. And Californians are not the only residents of the West suffering from such extremes.

“The western United States continues to experience record-breaking temperatures — again, in yet another month,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, at a separate Thursday night webinar.

Swain pointed to Phoenix, which has seen a slew of 110-degree days, and Denver, which was “rounding out its hottest September on record.”

The Golden State, meanwhile, will likely remain “much warmer than average for the foreseeable future, with little or no prospect of rain anywhere” in the next couple of weeks, according to Swain.

Predictions about a “warmer-than-usual fall and later-than-usual start to the rainy season certainly appear to be coming to fruition at the moment,” he added.

Although there are no major offshore wind events building along the West Coast, Swain warned that “fire risk will be rising once again.”

The dry autumn conditions “will set the stage for an unusually late fire season across the interior West,” he added, warning of a “fashionably late fire season for coastal California.”

Despite the persistent dryness, Department of Water Resources officials stressed that any winter water the state does receive will likely be in the form of powerful rainstorms and potential floods.

Nemeth emphasized that if such precipitation does occur, California is increasingly prepared to make the most of that influx, by capturing the excess water and storing it in reservoirs.

“We’re all — as water managers and as the government agencies and citizens — really beginning to absorb that when it’s raining, we need to be protecting ourselves from the potential for flooding,” Nemeth said. 

“But we also need to be taking that resource and making sure that we are saving it for an inevitable, long dry period,” she added.