Climate change intensified Milton rainfall, strengthened winds: Researchers

The effects of climate change intensified Hurricane Milton, making its rains heavier and its winds stronger, researchers with the World Weather Attribution (WWA) said Friday.

In its flash study, the WWA estimated the warming planet made the storm’s rainfall between 20 percent and 30 percent worse and gave a 10 percent boost to its wind strength when it slammed into western Florida late this week.

They also found, consistent with other research, that hurricanes with comparable wind speeds to Milton have become about 40 percent more frequent, while in storms of comparable rarity, wind speeds are close to 5 miles per second more intense.

Absent about 1.3 degrees of warming from preindustrial averages, the storm would likely have made landfall as a Category 2 storm, researchers projected.

Researchers also determined that ocean temperatures along the hurricane’s track were more than 1 degree Celsius warmer than they would be without climate change.

“We conclude that warmer Sea Surface Temperatures along the track of Hurricane Milton were strongly influenced by climate change, which affected Milton’s environment and made it more likely for the storm to develop and intensify throughout its lifetime,” they wrote.

The hurricane also illustrated logistical and infrastructure challenges that are likely to become worse if and when storms like Milton become more common, they wrote. For example, the highways that served as the main evacuation routes for those in the path of the hurricane saw severe congestion, and many of the hotels and rental properties where people sought to evacuate were already filled to capacity due to Hurricane Helene only a few weeks before.

More intense storms will also pose major financial hurdles to Americans, they wrote, noting research finding that 37 percent of Americans cannot afford a surprise $400 expense but that the average evacuee forced to stay in a hotel during Hurricane Harvey in 2017 spent more than $2,000.

The effects of climate change are not believed to actively increase the number of hurricanes overall, but the body of research suggests they make existing storms more intense.