Economists predict: 7.7 percent unemployment on Election Day 2012

And while a 7.7 percent rate would fall on the high end of the scale for presidential elections, the article points out that the trend of that rate, rather than just the number, is a factor for the incumbent at the ballot box.

The unemployment rate was 7.5 percent when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in 1980. While slightly lower than when he was elected, Carter was ousted while the rate was on the upswing, having increased from a low of 5.6 percent earlier in his term.

On the other hand, Reagan won re-election in 1984 with a 7.2 percent unemployment rate in the background, but he was able to campaign on the headwind provided by its decrease — it peaked at 10.8 percent in 1982.